Erik Jones entered the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs as one of the hottest drivers in the sport. But his early exit shows that he is still not quite ready to contend for a championship.
In the final 11 races of the 26-race 2018 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Erik Jones, who is in his first season driving for the team after spending the 2017 season, his rookie season, driving for Furniture Row Racing, was one of the hottest drivers in the sport.
Over the course of these 11 races, the 22-year-old Byron, Michigan native racked up nine top eight finishes, of which five were top five finishes. Of those five top five finishes, one was a second place finish to close out the regular season in the race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the other was a win in the July race at Daytona International Speedway.
Jones kept up his pre-playoff momentum into the playoffs by securing just the second pole position of his Cup Series career in the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to open up the round of 16, the first of four rounds in the playoffs.
At this point in time, many people did not believe that Jones would be one of the four playoff drivers who would end up being eliminated from playoff contention following the round of 16. Many people believed that he would advance to to the round of 12, with several believing that he could reach the round of 8. Some people even believed that he was a dark horse to advance to the Championship 4.
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However, a crash in the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway relegated Jones to a 40th place finish in what could have been a great points-paying race for him, sending him well below the round of 12 cut line. He failed to bounce back in significant way in the race at Richmond Raceway, as he secured a lackluster 11th place finish.
Pretty much needing a victory in the race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway roval to advance to the round of 12, Jones had arguably his most disastrous races of the season en route to a disappointing 30th place finish.
Jones entering the playoffs as one of the hottest drivers in the sport yet failing to come close to advancing to the round of 12 as the 16th (last) place playoff driver shows that he is not quite ready to content for championships. In fact, it shows that he is still probably a year away from being a year away.
Jones did not have immediate success following his switch from Furniture Row Racing to Joe Gibbs Racing as the replacement for 2003 Cup Series champion Matt Kenseth this year. But while his start to the season was a fairly slow start, it was still much improved from his start to the season last year, and he has continued to improve throughout the season.
The 2015 Truck Series champion was able to earn his first career Cup Series victory in the July race at Daytona International Speedway to secure his first career Cup Series playoff berth after failing to qualify for the playoffs last season and finishing in 19th place in the championship standings. Through 29 races this season, he has earned six top five finishes and 14 top 10 finishes. In last season’s 36 races, he earned five top five finishes and 14 top 10 finishes.
Jones led 310 laps last season and has only led 88 laps this season, but 260 of his laps led last season came in the 500-lap August race at the 0.533-mile (0.858-kilometer) Bristol Motor Speedway. He finished that race in second place, which was his career-high finish at the time.
With all of this in mind, it’s clear that Jones is making progress toward becoming one of the top Cup Series drivers, but he is doing so in small steps. At best, expect him to take one or maybe two steps forward next season to reach the round of 12 or perhaps the round of 8. However, he will still most likely be a year away from having a legitimate chance to advance to the Championship 4.
That said, make no mistake about it; Jones has the potential to compete for championships. It just not might happen for another few seasons.
How close do you believe Erik Jones is to becoming a serious contender to win NASCAR Cup Series championships? Do you believe that he will emerge as a championship contender in the 2019 season, or would the 2020 season or perhaps even some season after the 2020 season be a more reasonable prediction in terms of when he will do so?