NASCAR Cup Series: Who will advance to the round of 8?

The round of 12 of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is set to begin on Sunday with the Gander Outdoors 400. Who will advance to the round of 8?

The first three races of the 10-race 2018 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are in the books, meaning the first round, the round of 16, has come to a close. The round of 12 is set to get underway with the Gander Outdoors 400 at Dover International Speedway on Sunday, October 7.

Heading into the 400-lap race around the four-turn, 1.0-mile (1.609-kilometer) Dover International Speedway oval in Dover, Delaware, each of the 12 drivers who advanced to the round of 12 had their point totals reset to 3,000. After that, the playoff point totals that they have earned throughout the season were added to their respective point totals.

Heading into the round of 12, here is the current playoff picture. The totals listed in the “behind” column show where each driver currently stands in relation to the round of 8 cut line.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
1st – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 3055 (+47)
2nd – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 3050 (+42)
3rd – Martin Truex Jr., #78, Furniture Row Racing, Toyota: 3038 (+30)
4th – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 3025 (+17)
5th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 3015 (+7)
6th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 3014 (+6)
6th – Kurt Busch, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 3014 (+6)
8th – Ryan Blaney, #12, Team Penske, Ford: 3013 (+5)
9th – Chase Elliott, #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 3008 (-5)
10th – Kyle Larson, #42, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 3006 (-7)
11th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 3001 (-12)
12th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 3000 (-13)

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After the race at Dover International Speedway on Sunday, two races will remain on the round of 12 schedule. These races are set to take place at Talladega Superspeedway and Kansas Speedway. All three have these tracks hosted one race each earlier in the season.

With just eight positions open for these 12 drivers to qualify for the round of 8, which eight drivers will advance?

If the results of the round of 12 races are the same as the results of the three regular season races that were contested at the three tracks featured in the round of 12, here is how the playoff picture would look to close out the round of 12 and thus who would advance to the round of 8 and who would not. The totals listed in the “behind” column show where each driver would stand in relation to the round of 8 cut line.

NOTE: Included in this chart are the current point totals of each driver as well as the point totals they earned in the regular season races at Dover International Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway and Kansas Speedway. These point totals are added to show what each driver’s point total would be after the round of 12 concludes if the results of the round of 12 races are the same as the results of the three regular season races that were contested at these three tracks.

Because of the fact that some drivers were penalized following the conclusions of these races, the point totals used for these races are the point totals that each driver earned in each race before penalties were issued.

Rank – Driver: Points – (Dover – Talladega – Kansas) : Points (Behind)
1st – Kevin Harvick: 3050 – (60 – 42 – 58): 3210 (+115) – 2 WINS
2nd – Joey Logano: 3014 – (27 – 58 – 47): 3146 (+51) – 1 WIN
3rd – Kyle Busch: 3055 – (19 – 32 – 37): 3143 (+48)
4th – Martin Truex Jr.: 3038 – (37 – 19 – 36): 3130 (+35)
5th – Kurt Busch: 3014 – (38 – 38 – 35): 3125 (+30)
6th – Brad Keselowski: 3025 – (48 – 14 – 31): 3118 (+23)
7th – Chase Elliott: 3008 – (32 – 34 – 25): 3099 (+4)
8th – Ryan Blaney: 3013 – (33 – 31 – 19): 3096 (+1)
9th – Aric Almirola: 3001 – (26 – 30 – 38): 3095 (-1)
10th – Clint Bowyer: 3015 – (45 – 6 – 26): 3092 (-4)
11th – Kyle Larson: 3006 – (27 – 1 – 49): 3083 (-13)
12th – Alex Bowman: 3000 – (14 – 29 – 19): 3062 (-34)

If the results of the round of 12 races are the same as the results of the three regular season races that were contested at the three tracks featured in the round of 12, the eight drivers who would advance to the round of 8 are Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. Meanwhile, Aric Almirola, Clint Bowyer, Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman would be eliminated.

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Which eight drivers do you believe will advance to the round of 8? How different do you believe the results of the three round of 12 races will be from the results of the three NASCAR Cup Series races held at the three tracks featured in the round of 12 earlier this season? Be sure to tune in to NBC Sports Network on Sunday, October 7 at 2:00 p.m. ET to watch the round of 12 get underway with the Gander Outdoors 400 at Dover International Speedway.

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