If everything goes right for him, Sebastian Vettel could still win this year’s Formula 1 championship. Here’s what would need to happen.
The battle among four-time Formula 1 champions Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport and Sebastian Vettel of Scuderia Ferrari to become the third driver in Formula 1 history to earn five career championships appears to be all but over with four races remaining on the 21-race 2018 schedule.
With four races to go and a maximum of 100 points on the table for each driver since race wins are worth 25 points, Hamilton leads Vettel by 67 points in the driver standings (331 to 264).
However, to win the championship, Vettel must outscore Hamilton by at least 68 points throughout the rest of the season. This is the case because of the fact that Hamilton has won nine races this season while Vettel has only won five. With four races to go, Vettel’s maximum win total is nine.
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If Vettel reaches nine victories and he and Hamilton are tied in the driver standings when the season ends, the tiebreaker would become number of second place finishes. If Vettel wins each of the season’s final four races, which is the only way by which he can tie Hamilton in the wins category this year, he cannot add to his second place finish total of two. Meanwhile, Hamilton has already secured three second place finishes this season.
While 68 points is a huge deficit to overcome and Vettel likely won’t be able to overcome it, he is, in fact, still mathematically eligible to win this year’s championship. Here is how he can do it.
At most, Hamilton can win one more race. If Hamilton wins one race, he cannot score points in any other race, otherwise Vettel will be mathematically eliminated from championship contention. Assuming this happens, Vettel must finish in second place behind Hamilton in the race that Hamilton wins, and Vettel must win the three races that Hamilton does not win.
This would give Hamilton 25 points and Vettel 93 points, which would propel Vettel to his fifth career championship by one point over Hamilton. If Hamilton scores 26 or more points with 25 of those points having been earned by a victory, Vettel will be mathematically eliminated from championship contention, as he will have no way to outscore him by 68 or more points.
If Hamilton does not win a race before the season ends, Vettel’s task becomes somewhat easier, albeit only by a little bit. At most, Hamilton can score 32 points over the course of the season’s final four races for Vettel to remain mathematically eligible to win the championship. If Hamilton scores 33 points or more, Vettel will be mathematically eliminated from championship contention.
If Hamilton scores a combined total of 32 points throughout the rest of the season and he does so without winning any one of the remaining four races on the schedule, Vettel would win the championship by winning each and every race.
With all of this in mind, it is nearly impossible for Vettel to win this year’s championship. That said, if Hamilton has a slew of misfortune before the season comes to an end and somehow fails to score any points, here is what Vettel would need to do at the very least to win the championship.
- Win two races (50 points) and…
- …finish in second place (18 points) in another
- …finish in third place (15 points) in another and eighth (four points) in the other
- …finish in fourth place (12 points) in another and seventh (six points) in the other
- …finish in fifth place (10 points) in another and sixth (eight points) in the other
- Win one race (25 points) and…
- …finish in second place (18 points) in another, finish in third (15 points) in another and finish in fifth (10 points) in the other
- …finish in third place in all three others (45 points)
- Finish in second place in three races (54 points) and…
- third in the other (15 points)
If Hamilton scores between zero and 31 points without winning a race, Vettel must do slightly more than what is discussed in each of the scenarios above to win this year’s championship depending on what, exactly, Hamilton’s point total is. It certainly will not be easy for him to accomplish, but it is still possible.
Will Sebastian Vettel rally with four races left in the 2018 Formula 1 season to win his fifth career championship, or will Lewis Hamilton clinch the title within the next race or two like he is expected to? Tune in to ABC at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 21 for the live broadcast of the United States Grand Prix from Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas to see whether or not the championship battle will mathematically continue in the following race, the Mexican Grand Prix.