Formula 1: Will Lewis Hamilton clinch the 2018 championship in the U.S.?

Will Lewis Hamilton clinch his fifth career Formula 1 championship in the 18th race of the 2018 season, the United States Grand Prix?

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton is set to enter the 18th race of the 21-race 2018 Formula 1 season, the United States Grand Prix, in a third place tie with Alain Prost and Sebastian Vettel on the all-time Formula 1 titles list with four career championships.

However, the Briton has a chance to leave this race in a second place tie with Juan Manuel Fangio on the all-time Formula 1 titles list with five career championships, a total that trails only that of seven-time champion Michael Schumacher.

Fortunately for Hamilton, the United States Grand Prix has been one of his best races, especially with the race having been held at Circuit of the Americas since the 2012 season, so he may very well end up doing so.

Of the six races that have been held at the 20-turn, 3.427-mile (5.513-kilometer) Circuit of the Americas road course in Austin, Texas, Hamilton has won five. In fact, he has won each of the last four races held at the track dating back to the 2014 season. He also won the inaugural race at the track in the 2012 season.

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The only driver aside of Hamilton who has won the United States Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas is Vettel, the four-time champion who currently drives for Scuderia Ferrari and is the only driver aside of Hamilton who still has a chance to win this year’s championship.

Vettel, who trails Hamilton by 67 points (331 to 264) in the driver standings with four races remaining on the 2018 schedule, won the United States Grand Prix at the track in the 2013 season, but he was driving for Red Bull Racing at the time as opposed to Ferrari, the team for which he began driving in the 2015 season.

Hamilton finished in fourth place in the 2013 United States Grand Prix. In the six races that have been held at Circuit of the Americas, this is the only one that he did not win. His average finish in these six races is 1.33.

Given the fact that Hamilton has won the last four and six of the last seven races and the fact that Mercedes have had the upper hand over Ferrari in a majority of recent races, he is the overwhelming favorite to get the job done at Circuit of the Americas once again and win the race at the track for the fifth year in a row and the sixth time in his career.

There are several scenarios by which Hamilton can clinch his fifth career Formula 1 championship in the United States Grand Prix. Assuming he wins this race, which is the most reasonable assumption to make at this point, Vettel must not finish in second place in order for Hamilton to clinch the title.

Aside of Vettel’s victory in the United States Grand Prix during his record-breaking 2013 season, he has only finished in second place at Circuit of the Americas twice. He finished in second in the race at the track in the 2012 season and last season.

Vettel finished in seventh, third and fourth place in the races at Circuit of the Americas in the 2014 season, the 2015 season and the 2016 season, respectively. His average finish in his six races at the track is 3.17.

With all of this in mind, will Hamilton be a five-time Formula 1 champion by the time this Sunday’s United States Grand Prix reaches its conclusion?

With Mercedes riding a wave of momentum following two consecutive 1-2 finishes in the Russian Grand Prix and the Japanese Grand Prix, expect Hamilton to secure his fifth career championship in the United States Grand Prix. Expect him to win the race and expect teammate Valtteri Bottas to finish in second place to prevent Vettel from remaining mathematically eligible to win the championship heading into the Mexican Grand Prix.

In fact, even if Bottas doesn’t finish the race in second place, Vettel still might not finish in second, which would allow Hamilton to clinch the championship by winning the race. After all, Vettel has made a number of mistakes in recent races. With no top two finishes in any of the last four races, he does not have momentum on his side in any way, shape or form, and just one small mistake will likely prevent him from finishing in second in the United States Grand Prix.

Do you believe that the 2018 Formula 1 driver championship battle will end in the United States Grand Prix with Lewis Hamilton clinching his fifth career championship, or do you believe that Sebastian Vettel will ensure that the battle is not decided until at least the following race, the Mexican Grand Prix? Be sure to tune in to ABC at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 21 for the live broadcast of the race from Circuit of the Americas to find out.