NASCAR: Will Martin Truex Jr. repeat as Cup Series champion in 2018?

Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Martin Truex Jr. is one of the eight drivers remaining in the 2018 playoffs. Will he repeat as champion?

Furniture Row Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. entered the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series season with seven career Cup Series victories to his name following his 11th full season of Cup Series competition in 2016 season during which he more than doubled his career win total by winning four races.

Truex Jr. ended up more than doubling his career Cup Series win total in the 2017 season by earning eight victories, and he did so en route to winning his first career Cup Series championship.

This season, Truex Jr.’s early success was largely overshadowed by the successes of Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch.

However, Truex Jr. earned his third victory of the season two races earlier than he did last season (16th race as opposed to 18th race), and he earned his fourth victory of the season three races earlier than he did last season (19th race as opposed to 22 races).

The 38-year-old Mayetta, New Jersey became known as one of the “Big Three” along with Harvick and Busch, and his chances to return to the Championship 4 and perhaps win his second consecutive Cup Series championship were indisputably high.

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However, having failed to win any of the 13 races that have been contested since he earned his fourth victory of the season in the race at Kentucky Speedway in mid-July, is Truex Jr. still in a good position to advance to the Championship 4 and possibly win another title?

At this point last season, Truex Jr. had earned seven victories, including three in the playoffs. But this season, he barely even advanced to the round of 8 even with the third highest playoff point total (38) among all drivers. He finished the round of 12 just six points ahead of the round 8 cut line.

With the three tracks on the round of 8 schedule being three tracks at which he has not had much success, Truex Jr. is anything but a sure bet to get into this year’s Championship 4, much less win this year’s championship.

In a combined 76 starts at the three round of 8 tracks, which are Martinsville Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and ISM Raceway, Truex Jr. has never earned a victory. His average finish at Martinsville Speedway is 19.00 (18th best out of 24 tracks) while his average finish at Texas Motor Speedway is 14.04 (11th best out of 24 tracks) and his average finish at ISM Raceway is 16.48 (15th best out of 24 tracks).

That said, Truex Jr. did not finish lower than third place in these three round of 8 races last year. He finished in second place in the races at Martinsville Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway and third in the race at ISM Raceway. He locked up a Championship 4 berth based on his point total even before the round of 8 finale at ISM Raceway.

However, the 2018 season is not the 2017 season, and Truex Jr. may not have the luxury of locking himself into the Championship 4 based on his point total, much less doing so before the round of 8 finale. First of all, his playoff point total is not well above the playoff point totals of the rest of the round of 8 drivers like it was last season.

Secondly, there are at least three other non-“Big Three” drivers who are more than capable of winning one or more of these three round of 8 races, which would make it possible that only one or two of the “Big Three” will advance to the Championship 4 — and possibly do so based on their point totals. After all, drivers included in the “Big Three” have won just one of the last nine races.

If it comes down to point total, would Truex Jr. be able to hold off Harvick and/or Busch for one of these Championship 4 spots?

If it were 2017, I would say yes. Just look at the fact that Truex Jr. locked up his Championship 4 berth following the second round of 8 race. But again, it’s 2018 now, not 2017, and Truex Jr. has not been the same down the stretch this season as he was last season.

Add to that the fact that Furniture Row Racing are set to shut down at the end of the 2018 season. This could serve as one of two factors for the driver of the #78 Toyota. First of all, it could naturally be a negative distraction for Truex Jr., but secondly, it could serve as additional motivation for him to win his second consecutive championship.

With Truex Jr. not having won any of the seven races that have been contested since this announcement was made, is this announcement currently functioning as a negative distraction for him?

Regardless, Truex Jr. will need to fight his way into the Championship 4. Assuming he does that, which is far from a sure assumption at this point, beating the other three Championship 4 drivers in the season finale for the second consecutive season will be no easy task, especially given the depth of this year’s round of 8 field and thus this year’s potential Championship 4 field.

Do you believe that Martin Truex Jr. will win his second consecutive NASCAR Cup Series championship this season to become just the only active driver aside of seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson to win more than one championship? If not, who do you believe will be crowned champion following the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway in mid-November?