NASCAR Truck Series: Driver paths to the 2018 Championship 4

Here is how the NASCAR Truck Series Championship 4 drivers advanced through the playoffs. What should people expect in the championship race?

The 2018 NASCAR Truck Series Championship 4 is set. The four drivers in it are Johnny Sauter, Brett Moffitt, Justin Haley and Noah Gragson. The highest finisher among those four drivers in the season finale, the Ford EcoBoost 200, at Homestead-Miami Speedway will hoist the Truck Series championship trophy.

Grant Enfinger and Matt Crafton failed to advance from the round of 6 to the Championship 4. Both drivers contended during the round of 6 finale, the Lucas Oil 150, at ISM Raceway, but alas, they were eliminated from the playoffs.

Instead of the traditional weekly driver power rankings, let’s examine each driver’s journey to the Championship 4 and briefly predict how each driver will fare in the Ford EcoBoost 200 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

For more information regarding how these four drivers have performed at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the past, I encourage you to read this Beyond the Flag article.

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Johnny Sauter

At age 40, Johnny Sauter is the most seasoned of the Championship 4 drivers. He won the 2016 NASCAR Truck Series championship driving the #21 GMS Racing Chevrolet. He will look to repeat that performance and win his second career Truck Series championship this Friday night.

Sauter won the opening race of the season at Daytona International Speedway. He won five times total in the regular season and he finished the regular season as the regular season champion.

Although Sauter advanced to the round of 6 via the point standings, he soon found victory lane. He won the Texas Roadhouse 200 at Martinsville Speedway. As a result, he clinched his Championship 4 berth. He became the first driver to clinch a Championship 4 berth.

How will Sauter fare in the Ford EcoBoost 200? For starters, he won the race at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2011. In his 11 Truck Series starts at the track, he has finished in the top 10 eight times and his average finishing position is 10.09.

One troubling statistic for Sauter at Homestead-Miami Speedway is the fact that he has only led 64 laps there. That is not even six laps per race. Because the Championship 4 drivers have won 15 of the 22 Truck Series races so far this season, it is a good bet to predict that the Truck Series champion be the winner of the Ford EcoBoost 200, so Sauter will need to be up front.

Brett Moffitt

Brett Moffitt enters the Ford EcoBoost 200 with plenty of momentum. He won the Lucas Oil 150 at ISM Raceway to advance to the Championship 4. He won four times in the regular season. Moffitt and his Hattori Racing Enterprises team are quite confident.

Although a variety of companies have sponsored the #16 Hattori Racing Enterprises Toyota throughout the season, Moffitt has delivered. The championship format benefits him as he has only won two stages, but his five victories so far this season prove that he improves throughout the race.

Moffitt has never competed in a Truck Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He has competed there twice in the Cup Series, but his average finishing position is 33.5. A more telling statistic would be his Truck Series results at 1.5-mile tracks.

Homestead-Miami Speedway is a 1.5-mile track. As such, it is considered an intermediate track. Intermediate tracks are tracks between one and two miles long. In 18 career Truck Series starts in races at intermediate tracks, Moffitt has eight top 10 finishes and 129 laps led.

Moffitt has arguably been the top Toyota driver in the Truck Series this season. I expect him and his Hattori Racing Enterprises team to constantly work on his truck to help him be in contention to win the championship at the end of the race.

Moffitt does not yet have a ride for 2019. While there is still plenty of time for him to land a ride for next season, a Truck Series championship would certainly help him. At worst, it the fact that he does not yet have a ride lined up for next season allows him the freedom to take risks to try to win the championship.

Justin Haley

GMS Racing have a 50% chance of winning the Truck Series championship, as both Johnny Sauter and Justin Haley are in the Championship 4. Haley won his first career Truck Series race at Gateway Motorsports Park in June. While he won the race largely due to an excellent late restart, he has since proved his win was not a fluke.

As Noah Gragson and Todd Gilliland made contact in the final corner on the last lap in the Chevrolet Silverado 250, Haley snuck past and to win at Canadian Tire Motorsport Park. With that victory, he advanced to the round of 6.

Haley continued to surprise people. Although he arguably had the fastest truck in the JAG Metals 350 at Texas Motor Speedway when the white flag flew, he was in second place, seemingly too far behind leader Todd Gilliland. Yet on the backstretch, Gilliland’s #4 Toyota sputtered and was out of gas. Haley raced past and won the race. Even he was in shock!

Give credit to Haley. He has significantly improved in his second season driving the #24 GMS Racing Chevrolet. Because it is only his second season in the Truck Series, the 19-year-old has only raced at Homestead-Miami Speedway once. In that race, he started in seventh place and finished in ninth. He will probably need to improve his finishing position in order to win this year’s championship. He is not worried, though. After the round of 6 ended, he tweeted this.

There have been rumors of Haley competing in the Xfinity Series next season. Winning the Truck Series championship would certainly prove that he is ready to graduate from the Truck Series to the Xfinity Series.

Noah Gragson

Kyle Busch Motorsports driver Christopher Bell won the 2017 NASCAR Truck Series championship. Noah Gragson has the opportunity to win back-to-back championships for the organization. Interestingly, Gragson and his boss Kyle Busch drive #18 Toyotas, and both drivers will compete for the championship in their respective series this weekend.

Gragson has only won one race so far this season, the May race at Kansas Speedway. He advanced to the round of 6 and the Championship 4 via the point standings.

In the Lucas Oil 150 at ISM Raceway, Gragson took the lead on a late restart. Unfortunately, another caution flag period took place, and on the final restart, Grant Enfinger battled him for the lead. Both drivers sought Championship 4 berths. Brett Moffitt ultimately won the race, but Gragson still advanced to the Championship 4. In a classy move, he stated that he understood why Enfinger raced him so hard.

Gragson has raced at Homestead-Miami Speedway twice. He has not finished well there. His average starting position is 7.50, but his finishing position is 16.50. Losing an average of nine positions throughout the race does not bode well for his championship hopes.

Kyle Busch Motorsports bring contending trucks to each race. Expect the team to work their hardest to help Gragson win the championship. He is set to compete in the Xfinity Series next season as the replacement for the retiring Elliott Sadler at JR Motorsports. He wants to win the Truck Series championship before he moves to the Xfinity Series.

So who will win the 2018 NASCAR Truck Series championship? Will Johnny Sauter win his second career title? Has Justin Haley improved enough to capture the championship? Will Noah Gragson bring another championship trophy to Kyle Busch Motorsports, or will Brett Moffitt capitalize late in the race to win the championship in his first trip to Homestead-Miami Speedway as a Truck Series driver?

The Ford EcoBoost 200 is the NASCAR Truck Series Championship 4 race. It is scheduled to take place at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Friday, November 16. Fox Sports 1 is set to air the race live beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET.