Formula 1: Plethora of mistakes ultimately costs Sebastian Vettel the 2018 title

A plethora of mistakes by Sebastian Vettel throughout the 2018 Formula 1 season ultimately cost him a fifth career Formula 1 championship this year.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton and Scuderia Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel entered the 2018 Formula 1 seasons as four-time champions. They had combined to win seven of the last eight championships going back to the 2010 season, and both had their eyes on becoming the third driver in Formula 1 history to win five championships.

It was ultimately Hamilton who joined five-time champion Juan Manuel Fangio and seven-time champion Michael Schumacher on the short list of drivers who have won at least five championships.

Hamilton clinched his fifth career championship following the 19th race of the 21-race 2018 season, the Mexican Grand Prix, and he ended up winning it by 88 points (408 to 320) over Vettel, who finished in second place in the driver standings behind Hamilton for the second consecutive season.

However, what ultimately cost Vettel a chance to win this year’s championship was the fact that he made a plethora of unforced errors throughout the season, especially down the stretch. There were several times throughout the season during which it appeared as though he had become the favorite to win the championship, but he could never fully capitalize on the opportunities to establish himself as the true favorite.

Meanwhile, Hamilton took advantage of pretty much all of Vettel’s mistakes, of which there were many, en route to securing his fifth career championship.

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Vettel cost himself several points in the fourth race of the season, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, by attempting a way too aggressive pass on Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas for the race lead late in the race, causing him to fall back several positions. Hamilton ended up winning the race and scoring 25 points after one of Bottas’s tires was punctured with three laps remaining while Vettel ended up finishing in fourth place and scoring 12 points.

Had he not tried such an overaggressive pass and locked up his tires, Vettel would have gone to win the race as a result of Bottas’s punctured tire and score 25 points while Hamilton would have finished in second place and scored only 18 points. As a result, this overaggressive pass attempt cost Vettel 20 points relative to Hamilton.

Vettel cost himself more points in the eighth race of the season, the French Grand Prix, by spinning out Bottas in the first turn on the first lap. After starting the race in third place, he found himself alongside Bottas because he started on faster tires, but he could not capitalize and take second going into turn one, a position that he likely would have gotten had he waited to pass Bottas instead of getting overaggressive on the first lap in his attempt to do so. He was penalized for causing this collision.

Instead of finishing the race in second place and scoring 18 points, Vettel finished in fifth and scored 10 points. Meanwhile, Hamilton won the race and scored 25 points, so this overaggressive first-lap pass attempt cost Vettel eight more points relative to Hamilton.

Vettel’s mistake in the 11th race of the season, the German Grand Prix, was easily his most costly. With 16 laps remaining, he had a huge lead over Bottas in second place. Hamilton, meanwhile, was running in fourth. However, after dominating the race, Vettel crashed as a result of the fact that it started to rain.

Bottas and Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen, who was running in third place at the time, came into the pits for new tires. Meanwhile, Hamilton stayed out and inherited the race lead. Mercedes ordered Bottas not to try to pass Hamilton after the two teammates drove side-by-side following the ensuing restart, so Hamilton won the race and scored 25 points.

Vettel, meanwhile, threw away the opportunity to score 25 points with a victory with Hamilton scoring only 12 points as a result of a fourth place finish, so his crash cost him 38 points relative to Hamilton.

Vettel also spun out early in the 14th, 17th and 18th races of the season, the Italian Grand Prix, the Japanese Grand Prix and the United States Grand Prix, respectively. He finished these races in fourth, sixth and fourth place and earned 12 points, eight points and 12 points in them, respectively, for a total of 32 points.

Hamilton, meanwhile, won the Italian Grand Prix and the Japanese Grand Prix to score 50 points (25 points for each victory), and he finished in third place in the United States Grand Prix to score an additional 15 points, netting him 65 points in these three races.

Vettel’s spin in the United States Grand Prix likely did not cost him any positions in the long run, and Hamilton would have won the Japanese Grand Prix regardless, so Vettel’s spin in that race likely only cost himself a third place or a fourth place, meaning he would have scored 15 points or 12 points as opposed to only eight, so this spin cost him four or seven points relative to Hamilton.

Vettel’s spin in the Italian Grand Prix likely cost him a chance to win the race. While he started it in second place, he was the heavy favorite since teammate Raikkonen started from the pole position and Ferrari have clearly prioritized the success of Vettel over the success of Raikkonen over the course of the last few seasons. Hamilton ended up passing Raikkonen as a result of better tire management, but before his spin, Vettel was slated to finish ahead of Hamilton given Ferrari’s speed advantage.

Instead of outscoring Hamilton by seven points by winning the race and scoring 25 points with Hamilton finishing in second place and scoring 18 points, Vettel ended up being outscored by Hamilton by 13 points as a result of the fact that he scored 12 points with his fourth place finish while Hamilton scored 25 points with his victory. This spin effectively cost Vettel 20 points relative to Hamilton.

Considering how many points Vettel threw away this season relative to Hamilton (90 or 93) and comparing that total to Hamilton’s winning margin in the driver standings, it is clear that his mistakes were what cost him his chance to walk away from the 2018 season as Formula 1’s third five-time champion instead of Hamilton.

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Do you believe that Sebastian Vettel will bounce back from a mistake-filled 2018 Formula 1 season to contend to win the 2019 championship? Do you believe that he will become a five-time Formula 1 champion next year?

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