NASCAR Cup Series: How will 2019’s playoff field differ from 2018’s?

By Asher Fair | Dec 24, 2018

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 10: Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 M&M's Caramel Toyota, Aric Almirola, driver of the #10 Smithfield Ford, Ryan Blaney, driver of the #12 BODYARMOR Ford, Brad Keselowski, driver of the #2 Discount Tire Ford, Joey Logano, driver of the #22 Shell Pennzoil Ford, Alex Bowman, driver of the #88 Axalta Chevrolet, Chase Elliott, driver of the #9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet, Denny Hamlin, driver of the #11 FedEx Possibilities Toyota, Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #78 Auto-Owners Insurance Toyota, Austin Dillon, driver of the #3 Dow MOLYKOTE Chevrolet, Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Jimmy John's New 9-Grain Wheat Sub Ford, Clint Bowyer, driver of the #14 Mobil 1/Rush Truck Centers Ford, Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Lowe's for Pros Chevrolet, Kurt Busch, driver of the #41 Haas Automation/Monster Energy Ford, Kyle Larson, driver of the #42 Credit One Bank Chevrolet, Erik Jones, driver of the #20 buyatoyota.com Toyota, pose for a photo after making the NASCAR Playoffs following the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on September 10, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images) /

A total of 16 drivers qualify for the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. How will the playoff field in the 2019 season differ from the one in the 2018 season?

Under the current playoff format, a total of 16 drivers qualify for the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Four of these 16 drivers are eliminated in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs before the final four drivers compete to win the championship in the fourth and final round, the Championship 4, at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

This past season, the 16 playoff drivers were Stewart-Haas Racing teammates Aric Almirola, Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick, Team Penske teammates Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Erik Jones, Hendrick Motorsports teammates Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson, Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon, Chip Ganassi Racing’s Kyle Larson and Furniture Row Racing’s Martin Truex Jr.

Of these 16 drivers, 11 qualified for the playoffs in the 2017 season. The five who did not were Almirola, Bowyer, Logano, Jones and Bowman. The five drivers who qualified for the 2017 playoffs instead of these five drivers were Joe Gibbs Racing’s Matt Kenseth, Hendrick Motorsports’ Kasey Kahne, Richard Childress Racing’s Ryan Newman, Chip Ganassi Racing’s Jamie McMurray and Roush Fenway Racing’s Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

With the same playoff format that was used in the 2018 season and that has been used since the 2014 season set to be used in the 2019 season and with several changes having been made and having yet to be made to the driver lineup for the 2019 season from the 2018 season, which of the 16 drivers who qualified for the playoffs in the 2018 season will fail to do so, and which drivers will end up qualifying for the playoffs instead of them?

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The driver who would appear to be the most obvious pick to fail to qualify for the playoffs in the 2019 season after qualifying for the playoffs in the 2018 season is Dillon.

Dillon was the only driver who qualified for the playoffs in the 2018 season despite the fact that he did not finish in the top 16 in the regular season point standings. His Daytona 500 victory to open up the season locked him into the playoffs, so he could afford what ended up being a 19th place finish in the regular season point standings as far as his playoff berth was concerned.

It would also not be surprising to see Johnson or Bowman fail to qualify for the playoffs in the 2019 season after qualifying for the playoffs in the 2018 season. They were the final two drivers to qualify for the playoffs in the 2018 season based on their regular season point totals, and neither one seemed to get the handle on the new Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 like their teammate Elliott did. Plus, Johnson’s decline over the past few seasons has been particularly noticeable.

As far as which drivers may qualify for the playoffs in the 2019 season after failing to qualify for the playoffs in the 2018 season, Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron stands out, as does whoever ends up replacing Kurt Busch at Stewart-Haas Racing (likely Daniel Suarez).

Byron showed flashes of potential in his rookie season, but he was not quite able to take that next step to the point where he could be counted on to rack up solid results on a consistent basis.

With one full season of Cup Series experience now under his belt and with Chad Knaus set to be his crew chief after serving as the crew chief for the seven-time champion Johnson in each of the last 17 seasons, expect Byron to take that next step in the 2019 season.

Assuming Suarez replaces Busch behind the wheel of the #41 Ford, he should be considered a playoff contender at the very least. While he was unable to qualify for the playoffs in either of his two seasons driving for another one of the sport’s top-tier teams, Joe Gibbs Racing, he has shown flashes of potential on many occasions and has been close to earning what would have been his first career Cup Series victory many times.

With Stewart-Haas Racing having earned 12 victories in the 2018 season and having undoubtedly been the best overall team throughout the season, Suarez should have what it takes to be competitive from the start. Busch himself nearly qualified for the Championship 4 behind the wheel of the #41 Ford in 2018, and he nearly did so even with just one victory throughout the season.

Also, don’t sleep on Roush Fenway Racing’s Ryan Newman, who drove for Richard Childress Racing in the 2018 season and ended up being the only driver who failed to qualify for the playoffs after finishing the regular season in the top 16 in the points standings. He has only failed to qualify for the playoffs in two of the five seasons that have taken place since the current playoff format was introduced.

Of course, even with all of this in mind, the new rules package for the 2019 season could shake things up quite a bit, as it is expected to be somewhat of an equalizer among the top-tier teams and the mid-pack/backmarker teams. That said, the usual contenders should still be the usual contenders for the most part.

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Which 16 drivers will qualify for the playoffs in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season? How many of those drivers will be drivers who did not qualify for the playoffs in the 2018 season? Which drivers who qualified for the playoffs in the 2018 season will fail to do so in the 2019 season?

The 26-race 2019 regular season is scheduled to get underway on Sunday, February 17, 2019 with the 61st annual Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Florida. The 10-race 2019 playoffs are scheduled to begin on Sunday, September 15, 2019 with the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, Nevada. Be sure not to miss any of the 26 regular season races or any of the 10 playoff races that are on the 2019 schedule.

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