Formula 1: When will a non-Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull Racing driver win a race?

When will a driver who drives for a team other than Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull Racing win a Formula 1 race? It hasn’t happened since the 2013 season.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport, Scuderia Ferrari and Aston Martin Red Bull Racing have combined to have their drivers win 118 consecutive Formula 1 races. These three teams have combined to win every race in the V6 turbo hybrid era, which began in the 2014 season, and they combined to win all but one race in the 2013 season as well.

The last time a driver won a Formula 1 race while driving for a team other than these three teams was in the 2013 season opener, the Australian Grand Prix. Kimi Raikkonen won this race in what was his second and final season driving for Lotus.

Since then, Mercedes’ drivers have combined to earn 77 victories while Red Bull Racing’s drivers have combined to earn 25 and Ferrari’s drivers have combined to earn 16.

More from Formula One

• Formula 1: Top Red Bull threat identified for 2024
• Formula 1: Why the Max Verstappen retirement obsession?
• Formula 1: Williams ‘mistake’ hints Logan Sargeant’s future
• Formula 1 awaiting key confirmation for 2024 season
• Formula 1: The ‘championship’ Max Verstappen only leads by 3 points

When will a team other than Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull Racing have one of their drivers win a Formula 1 race?

Formula 1 racing should be closer in the 2019 season than it has been over the last few seasons with there set to be a number of aerodynamic changes, but these changes won’t necessarily result in the non-top-tier teams having better chances to win. In fact, it is still highly unlikely, probably as unlikely as it has been in recent seasons, that a team other than Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull Racing will have one of their drivers win a race in the 2019 season simply because of these changes.

Once again — and regardless of these changes — it would seem as though the only way by which a driver who drives for a team other than these three teams can win a race is if all six of the drivers who drive for these three teams are forced to retire in the same race, and the odds of this are minimal, as everyone already knows.

With there set to be major rule changes ahead of the 2021 season that should bridge the gap between the sport’s top three teams and the rest of the field, the most popular answer to the question about when a team other than Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull Racing will have one of their drivers win a Formula 1 race is the 2021 season.

However, I wouldn’t even bet on this.

Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull Racing have all threatened to quit Formula 1 ahead of the 2021 season as a result of the potential of these rule changes.

While this would guarantee that a team other than these three teams would have one of their drivers win a Formula 1 race, it could also force the planned rule changes to be scaled back a bit (or a lot) so that these three teams will stay in the sport and so that they can keep the advantages that they have built up over the years.

Given the fact that these three teams are super important to the success of the sport, it is hard to see a scenario that results in them (a) leaving the sport) and (b) competing in the sport as anything less than above average teams, especially if that scenario is only created by rule changes.

Don’t expect a non-Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull Racing driver to win a race in the foreseeable future. It would not be silly to hope for a one of these drivers to earn a victory in the 2021 season, but even this is probably pushing it. Expect this to happen, at the absolute earliest, in the 2022 season.

When will a team other than Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull Racing have one of their drivers win a Formula 1 race? At this point, it’s anybody’s guess, as it will be almost six years since this has happened once the 2019 season begins. The 2019 season is scheduled to begin on Sunday, March 17 with the Australian Grand Prix at Melbourne Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne, Australia.