Formula 1: Five years from now, where will Lewis Hamilton be?

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton believes that he can compete in Formula 1 for five more seasons. Five years from now, where will he be?

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton is getting to the point where it can be said that he is in hot pursuit of the all-time Formula 1 wins and championships record that have been held by Michael Schumacher for several seasons.

Hamilton, who has already won four of the 2019 season’s first six races and effectively looks like a lock to win yet another championship, entered the 2019 season in second place on the all-time Formula 1 wins list and in a second place tie on the all-time Formula 1 championships list.

The 34-year-old Briton won his first championship in thrilling fashion over Felipe Massa in the 2008 season, his second season in Formula 1, driving for McLaren. He did not win another championship until the 2014 season, his second season driving for Mercedes, but once the V6 turbo hybrid era began that season, he has been almost unstoppable.

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Hamilton entered the 2019 season as a five-time champion having won both of the last two and four of the last five championships. Only seven-time champion Schumacher and five-time champion Juan Manuel Fangio won five Formula 1 championships prior to Hamilton.

Additionally, he entered the 2019 season with 73 career victories under his belt, trailing only Schumacher’s win total of 91. He earned 51 of those 73 victories from the 2014 season through the 2018 season, an all-time record for the most victories in a five-year span.

Now a 77-race winner with a 17-point lead in the driver standings (137 to 120) over teammate Valtteri Bottas with 15 races remaining on the 21-race 2019 schedule, Hamilton appears poised to, at the very least, break Schumacher’s wins record and tie his championships record.

In July of 2018, Hamilton signed a two-year contract extension with Mercedes to continue driving for the team through the 2020 season, and given his recent comments about being able to compete in Formula 1 for five more seasons, he will likely sign another contract extension with the team next year.

Here is what Hamilton, who previously hinted that the 2020 season may be his final season competing in Formula 1, had to say about competing in Formula 1 for five more years, according to Yahoo.

"“Michael retired when he was 38. I’m 33. In my mind I can definitely do five years. I am ridiculously determined to win. What really drives me, and I feel that somewhat the people I race against may lack, is that fire. I’ve got this opportunity. I could easily let go of it right now but I feel like I would be squandering it if I didn’t continue to improve, grow and push.“I’ve got to keep going for as long as I can basically – until I’m not enjoying it. It’s a hard, hard year. Mentally you have these massive highs, wins and success, but then you have these massive comedowns.“[It’s] something I’ve never really spoken about but you often do suffer from mental issues – instabilities – and keeping yourself together when you hit rock bottom, which you do as an athlete. If you’re lucky you can find strength at rock bottom. It’s about how you get up, not how you fall.”"

While there is the possibility of drivers such as Mercedes junior drivers George Russell or Esteban Ocon coming along and being potential candidates to sign with the team, the odds that the Brackley-based team would actually boot Hamilton out against his wishes for one of these two drivers, or even a rival driver such as Aston Martin Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen, are slim to none.

If Hamilton wants to drive for Mercedes, he will drive for Mercedes, and he has earned the right to make that decision. At this point, it would be silly for him not to continue to do so, and if he can do so at a high level for five more seasons, more power to him.

This leads to one question: in five years, where will Hamilton be, not just physically, but as far as his all-time ranking is concerned?

The year 2024 is five years from now, and on Sunday, January 7, 2024, Hamilton is slated to turn 39 years old. Given his quote about Schumacher retiring when he was 38, we can assume that the 2019 season counts as the first of these five seasons. The 2019 season is still in its early stages as well, so if he meant five seasons after 2019, he might as well have just said six years.

Hamilton is the clear championship favorite this season with four victories in the season’s first six races and six victories in the last eight races going back to last season, so expect him to become the second six-time championship in Formula 1 history at the end of this season.

While it will be tough for him to break the single-season wins record this year even though he believes that his hot start to the season has only been “average”, he could very well break his personal best mark for victories in a season with a 12-win season, which would move his career win total to 85 entering the 2020 season.

With Formula 1’s major regulation changes not set to kick in until the 2021 season, Hamilton is undoubtedly slated to be the championship favorite next season as well.

Having not won fewer than nine races in a season since the V6 turbo hybrid era began, he should have no problem winning six races to tie Schumacher’s all-time wins record and a seventh to break it next year en route to tying the German’s all-time championships record by the time the season concludes. Chalk up another 10 wins for him to bring his career win total to a record 95.

Beyond the 2020 season is a major question mark, as the 2020 season is a contract year for Hamilton and he may change his mind several times about what he plans to do between now and then and nobody knows who, exactly, the major regulation changes will benefit or harm.

But if Hamilton ends the 2020 season as a seven-time champion, don’t expect him to walk away and settle for being tied with Schumacher, even if he does already possess the all-time wins record.

Expect Hamilton to go into the 2021 season with two goals: reaching 100 career victories and becoming the first driver in Formula 1 history to win eight championships.

If he can accomplish both, it would not shock anybody if he retires. If he doesn’t, he should have two more chances to do so in the 2022 and 2023 season assuming he does what he feels he is capable of doing and does not retire until after the 2023 season ends.

Regardless, come 2024, expect Hamilton to be an ex-Formula 1 driver with at least 100 victories and eight championships to his name. If he exceeds 100 victories in the 2021 season but does not win the championship, that should only help his career win total, as it would likely result in him returning in the 2022 season and possibly the 2023 season.

Just to throw out exact numbers as predictions to close out this article, on this date five years from now, Hamilton will have won 108 races and eight championships.

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Five years from now, will Lewis Hamilton still be competing in Formula 1? Will he be the all-time recordholder for wins and championships, or will Michael Schumacher’s records in these two categories withstand the test of time? How many victories and championships will he have earned by that time?

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