Formula 1: When will Mercedes lose their first race of 2019?

Mercedes have won the last 10 Formula 1 races going back to the end of the 2018 season. When will they lose their first race of the 2019 season?

Not since Sunday, October 28, 2018 have a team other than Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport been victorious in a Formula 1 race. The race on this date, the Mexican Grand Prix, was the 19th race of the 21-race 2018 season, and it was won by Aston Martin Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen in dominant fashion.

Mercedes have earned 10 consecutive victories since the 21-year-old Dutchman won this race, including eight in a row to open up the 2019 season.

Lewis Hamilton has been responsible for eight of these 10 victories, including six so far this season, while Valtteri Bottas has been responsible for the other two, both this season.

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Mercedes are currently one win away from tying the all-time record for consecutive victories (11, set by McLaren to start the 1988 season). But more important than the question of whether or not they will tie and potentially break this record is the question of when a team other than Mercedes will win another race.

A total of 13 races remain on the 21-race schedule, and Mercedes won only — the word “only” being used very, very loosely — eight of these races last season.

So when will they finally lose?

More than likely, when the Silver Arrows finally do fail to win a race, whatever race they lose will be won by either Scuderia Ferrari or Aston Martin Red Bull Racing. Aside of Mercedes, these two teams are the only two teams to win any of the last 126 races going back to the beginning of the 2013 season.

Next up on the schedule are Austrian Grand Prix and the British Grand Prix, two races that were not won by Mercedes last season. Verstappen won the former while Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel won the latter.

However, Verstappen’s victory in last year’s Austrian Grand Prix came after a terrible strategy call by Hamilton’s team that basically threw away the lead. At this point, Bottas had already been forced to retire with a mechanical issue, and late in the race, Hamilton was forced to retire with a mechanical issue as well.

Additionally, Vettel’s victory in last year’s British Grand Prix came after Hamilton was hit and dropped to last place on the race’s opening lap. He still rallied to finish in second place by just over two seconds behind his German rival.

Prior to last year, the last four Austrian Grands Prix had been won by Mercedes and the last five British Grands Prix had been won by the team as well. Barring any extremely negative circumstances, it is hard to picture them failing to win either of these two races in the coming weeks.

The race following the British Grand Prix is the German Grand Prix. Hamilton won last year’s German Grand Prix, although this race was a race that was dominated by Ferrari and Vettel. That said, Mercedes have won the last three races at Hockenheimring, with Hamilton having won the most recent two, so it will be tough to stop them there this year.

Following this race is the Hungarian Grand Prix, a race that, prior to last season, had not been won by the driver who went on to win the championship since Michael Schumacher won it in 2004 en route to winning his record seventh championship. Hamilton ended that trend last season and has now won two of the last three races at the Hungaroring, so don’t be shocked to see him win another.

The Belgian Grand Prix follows the Hungarian Grand Prix on this year’s schedule as its 13th race, and this race is probably the race that presents the best chance for a team other than Mercedes to win for the first time this season.

Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps is a power-heavy circuit, and Ferrari thrived in that area with Vettel last season. He took the lead from Hamilton on the first lap of the race and never gave it up en route to a dominant victory, and so far this season, Ferrari have still had the advantage over Mercedes on long straightaways. The Belgian Grand Prix should, once again, play to their favor.

If you have to select the race that is most likely to bring Mercedes’ lengthy winning streak to a halt, select the Belgian Grand Prix to end this streak at 14 consecutive victories, likely with a Ferrari victory.

When will we next see a team other than Mercedes celebrating a victory following a Formula 1 race? It has been eight months since this last took place, and the Brackley-based team have given use no reason to believe that their lengthy winning streak will end in the near future.