Formula 1: When will Lewis Hamilton clinch 2019 championship?

The last two Formula 1 championships have been clinched by Lewis Hamilton with two races remaining in the season. When will he clinch the 2019 title?

Five-time Formula 1 champion Lewis Hamilton is well on his way to becoming a six-time champion this season after opening up the season with seven victories in the first 10 races and only one finish outside of the top two. His average finishing position is 1.80.

While there are still 11 races remaining on the 21-race 2019 schedule and a few other drivers who have the potential to win several races, there is no point in denying the inevitable.

The big question at this point is when will Hamilton clinch the 2019 championship, which would also be his fifth title in the last six seasons and his third title in a row?

Hamilton currently holds a 39-point lead (223 to 184) in the driver standings over Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport teammate Valtteri Bottas, the only other driver to win multiple races this season, in second place.

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Aston Martin Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen, the only other driver to win at all this season, sits in third place in the standings with 136 points, 87 behind Hamilton, and is the only other driver who trails Hamilton by fewer than 100 points.

The British Grand Prix was the 10th race on the schedule this season, just as it was in the 2017 and 2018 seasons. In the 2017 season, Hamilton left this race with four victories and a one-point deficit in the driver standings. In the 2018 season, he left this race with three victories and an eight-point deficit in the standings.

He ended up clinching the 2017 championship with 18 of the season’s 20 races completed, and he won it by 46 points over Scuderia Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel in second place. He ended up clinching the 2018 championship with 19 of the season’s 21 races completed, and he won it by 88 points over Vettel in second.

Of the 11 races remaining on the 2019 schedule, nine followed the British Grand Prix in the 2017 season and all 11 followed the British Grand Prix in the 2018 season. Hamilton won five of these nine races in the 2017 season, and he won eight of the 11 last year.

As strong as Hamilton’s start to the 2019 season has been, there is no reason to believe that he won’t get stronger, and that could lead to a very early championship celebration, especially since the only driver who is even remotely close to him in the driver standings is Bottas and Bottas has seemed to fizzle out after an exceptionally strong start to the 2019 season.

Unlike in the 2017 and 2018 seasons, a maximum of 26 points are on the table for each driver in each race, as in addition to the 25 points that drivers are awarded for winning a race, there is one point on the table for recorded the fastest lap time of the race. But this shouldn’t delay Hamilton’s quest to secure his sixth career championship.

To clinch the championship with two races remaining, Hamilton will need to be at least 52 points ahead of second place in the driver standings. It is hard to see him failing to outscore Bottas by at least 13 points over the next nine races, so expect him to have the championship locked up before the season’s 19th race, the United States Grand Prix, comes to an end.

To clinch the championship with three races remaining, Hamilton win need to be at least 78 points ahead of second place in the driver standings. With a 39-point lead after a very strong 10 races, adding another 39 points to this lead over the course of the next nine races may prove to be a challenge for Hamilton, but it is a challenge that his recent history and Bottas’s last few months illustrate that he can overcome.

By the time the Mexican Grand Prix, which is the 18th race on the schedule, is in the books, expect Hamilton to officially be a six-time champion. He clinched his fourth and fifth championships in this race as well, but it switched positions with the United States Grand Prix on this year’s schedule, so it is now one race earlier and three races will remain on the schedule once it has been contested as opposed to only two.

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With Lewis Hamilton well on his way to winning his sixth career Formula 1 championship, how many races will remain on the 2019 schedule when he mathematically clinches the title?

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