Formula 1: When will Lewis Hamilton break Michael Schumacher’s wins record?

Lewis Hamilton is in hot pursuit of Michael Schumacher’s all-time Formula 1 wins record. When will he tie it, and when will he break it?

Ever since he earned the 52nd victory of his Formula 1 career in the 2016 season, Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton has been in second place on the all-time Formula 1 wins list. When he earned that 52nd victory in the Brazilian Grand Prix, however, he had a far climb to the top of the wins list.

Upon becoming victorious for the 52nd time in his Formula 1 career, the 34-year-old Briton trailed Michael Schumacher for the all-time Formula 1 wins record by 39 victories, as Schumacher won 91 races over the course of his career. Prior to Hamilton earning his 52nd career victory, the next closest driver to Schumacher was Alain Prost, who won 51 races.

Not even three years later, Hamilton has added 28 victories to his career win total in only 53 races, and he trails Schumacher for the record by only 11 victories.

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Set to drive for Mercedes through at least the 2020 season after signing a two-year contract extension with the team in July of 2018, the five-time champion is poised to tie if not break Schumacher’s wins record.

So when will he tie it, and when will he break it?

With all things considered, Formula 1 could have a new all-time winningest driver within the next year. Hamilton needs 11 victories to tie Schumacher’s record and 12 to break it. He has earned his most recent 11 victories in his last 17 starts, and he has earned his most recent 12 victories in his last 18 starts.

If you count ahead 18 races from now, you reach only the eighth race of the 2020 season, a season that is set to feature at least 20 races. The 2018 and 2019 schedules both featured 21 events.

While Scuderia Ferrari and Aston Martin Red Bull Racing were expected to give Mercedes a run for their money this season with the Silver Arrows entering the season on a five-year championship run, Mercedes have won nine of the season’s first 11 races, with Hamilton winning seven. Even a slight falloff from that next season would result in a seventh consecutive dominant year.

Even if one or both of these two teams do challenge the Brackley-based team harder next year and Hamilton does not win at the rate at which he has been winning, he should still tie Schumacher’s record well before the 2020 season ends, and as long as he doesn’t tie it in the season finale, he should quite easily break it next year as well.

Expect to see Hamilton become Formula 1’s first 92-time Grand Prix winner with several races remaining on the 2020 schedule.

When will Lewis Hamilton become the winningest driver in Formula 1 history? If things continue going how they’ve been going over the last few years, it won’t be long until he surpasses Michael Schumacher’s all-time wins record of 91.