Formula 1: Red Bull Racing could’ve signed Carlos Sainz Jr. over Pierre Gasly

Red Bull Racing’s second driver decision for the 2019 Formula 1 season was between two drivers: Pierre Gasly and Carlos Sainz Jr. They went with the former.

Last year at this time, just like this year, Aston Martin Red Bull Racing were at the center of Formula 1 Silly Season rumors. Daniel Ricciardo had just made the shocking decision to leave the Milton Keynes-based team and sign a two-year contract with Renault.

In doing so, he ended up replacing Carlos Sainz Jr., who drove for Scuderia Toro Rosso, the Red Bull Racing junior team, from the 2015 season through much of the 2017 season before he was effectively loaned to Renault for the end of the 2017 season and then for the 2018 season.

Even in the 2018 season, the 24-year-old Spaniard still had a contract with Red Bull Racing. In fact, according to Renault managing director Cyril Abiteboul, it was Red Bull Racing blocking Renault from having Sainz sign a contract extension that allowed the French manufacturer to ultimately walk away with Ricciardo.

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This is particularly notable because just a few weeks beforehand, Red Bull Racing had announced that they would be cutting their ties with Renault at the end of the 2018 season and switching to Honda engines. They had used Renault engines since the 2007 season.

There was clearly bad blood between Red Bull Racing and Renault after this announcement was made and after several recent seasons of engine issues.

Once Ricciardo made his shocking decision to leave Red Bull Racing and Renault, that left two things: (1) Red Bull Racing in a situation that they did not expect in terms of finding a replacement and (2) Sainz without a ride for the 2019 season.

There were several candidates who had an outside chance to land the ride alongside Max Verstappen, including Kimi Raikkonen, Fernando Alonso and even Robert Kubica. But it ultimately came down to two drivers: Sainz, of course, and Pierre Gasly.

Sainz had previously been Verstappen’s teammate when the pair drove for Toro Rosso as rookies in the 2015 season, and Verstappen outscored him 49 to 18 with 10 top 10 finishes, including two fourth place finishes. Sainz finished the season with seven top 10 finishes and a top finish of seventh.

Gasly, meanwhile, was in his rookie season driving for Toro Rosso, and he had had quite an impressive rookie year. His dominance over rookie teammate Brendan Hartley was highlighted by his fourth place finish in the Bahrain Grand Prix.

His fourth place finish in this race was the highest finish for a Honda team since Rubens Barrichello finished in third in the 2008 British Grand Prix driving for the works Honda team. It was the highest finish for a customer Honda team since Jenson Button finished in third in the 2005 Belgian Grand Prix driving for BAR. Gasly finished the season with five top 10 finishes, and he outscored Hartley 29 to 4.

Sainz, now unable to sign a contract with Renault since they signed Ricciardo and Nico Hulkenberg was still under contract with them, ended up signing with McLaren as the replacement for Alonso after Alonso announced that he would be retiring upon the conclusion of the 2018 season.

Days later, Red Bull Racing signed Gasly after having been tipped to do so.

Skip ahead one year later.

Red Bull Racing sit in third place in the constructor standings with 244 points with 12 of the 2019 season’s 21 races in the books. Lead driver Verstappen sits in third in the driver standings with 181 points.

McLaren rookie Lando Norris has had impressive start to the season with 24 points, and if you double his impressive point total, McLaren would be the “best of the rest” in fourth place in the constructor standings behind only Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport, Scuderia Ferrari and Red Bull Racing.

As impressive as Norris has been, Sainz has scored nearly two and half times as many points as he has. With 58 points, he is currently the “best of the rest” in seventh place in the driver standings behind only the six Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull Racing drivers, and he has propelled McLaren to 82 points in the constructor standings, 39 points clear of fifth place Toro Rosso with 43.

Do the math at Red Bull Racing, and Gasly has scored just five more points than Sainz has in a far superior car with 63.

This is the case despite the fact that Sainz failed to score points in any of the season’s first three races. He was forced to retire in the first two, and he finished in a disappointing 14th place in the third. Through the season’s first three races, his average finish was a series-worst 17.67.

Through the season’s first 12 races, Gasly has recorded nine top 10 finishes while Sainz has recorded eight. Both drivers have recorded five top six finishes and two top five finishes. Gasly’s average finish is 8.50 while Sainz’s is 9.58.

Since Sainz’s awful start to the season, he has flat-out outperformed Gasly in a vastly inferior car. He has recorded eight top eight finishes in nine races while Gasly has recorded six. Both drivers have still recorded two top five finishes, but Sainz has recorded five top six finishes while Gasly has only recorded four. Sainz’s average finish is 6.89 while Gasly’s is 8.56.

Sainz’s lowest finish during this span is 11th place while Gasly has recorded finishes of 14th and 17th. The former has outscored the latter 58 to 50 throughout these nine races.

Sainz has also outscored Gasly over the last one-race span (10 to 8), two-race span (20 to 8), three-race span (28 to 20), four-race span (32 to 26), five-race span (40 to 27), six-race span (40 to 31), seven-race span (48 to 42) and eight-race span (52 to 50).

While Gasly looked promising in his rookie season, Red Bull Racing whiffed big time by letting Sainz go.

Whether or not Sainz will truly post a threat to Gasly to finish in sixth place in the driver standings remains to be seen, but at this point, it really doesn’t matter when it comes to who has gotten the most out of his respective car.

Gasly is in a position where good fortune stemming from a few of the other Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull Racing drivers being knocked out of contention could result in him finishing a race in third or fourth place, like he did in the British Grand Prix when Verstappen and Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel crashed, whereas a sixth or seventh place finish for Sainz is considered a huge accomplishment in his McLaren.

Should Red Bull Racing have signed the more experienced Carlos Sainz Jr. over Pierre Gasly ahead of the 2019 Formula 1 season? Gasly still has much of the second half of the season to illustrate to the team that they made the right selection, but so far, Sainz has been making them pay.

Sainz is already under contract with McLaren for the 2020 season, but Gasly could very well end up being replaced at Red Bull Racing next year. Will Sainz be an option for the team at some point in the future?