Formula 1: Mercedes’ opportunism sets them apart from Ferrari

While the statistics show Mercedes dominance in recent Formula 1 seasons, it is the opportunism shown by the team that has separated them from Ferrari and the rest of the field.

The V6 turbo hybrid era of Formula 1 has been dominated if not owned by Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport since it began in the 2014 season. They have taken 92 pole positions for the 116 races that have been contested since this era began, and they have won 85 of these 116 races.

In recent seasons, Scuderia Ferrari and Aston Martin Red Bull Racing, the only two teams other than Mercedes in the 134 races that have been contested since Kimi Raikkonen won the 2013 season opener driving for Lotus, have been far more competitive than they had been.

But the statistics still show that Mercedes are the dominant team. The fact that they sit 162 points ahead of Ferrari in second place in the constructor standings with a chance to secure what would be their sixth consecutive constructor championship in the 17th race on the 21-race 2019 schedule, this Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka Circuit, backs this up.

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However, above everything else, from engines to aero packages to tracks and even to drivers, the opportunism that the Silver Arrows have displayed is what has set them apart from the rest of the field, namely Ferrari, which are slated for their third consecutive runner-up finish in the constructor standings this year.

We saw it in last Sunday’s Russian Grand Prix at Sochi Autodrom when Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton won ahead of teammate Valtteri Bottas in second place when the result should have been a 1-2 finish for Ferrari. Ferrari’s attempt to use team orders with Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc turned into a disaster when only Leclerc obeyed, and Vettel’s retirement resulted in a virtual safety car period that ultimately robbed Leclerc’s chance of winning the race after starting from the pole position.

But this opportunism has gone on since long before this particular race, and there are many instances from the last two years or so alone to illustrate this concept.

The 2017 Singapore Grand Prix is one example. Starting the race in fifth place, Lewis Hamilton shouldn’t have had a chance to win at one of the schedule’s tightest venues, Marina Bay Street Circuit.

But a multi-car crash in turn one on the race’s opening lap involving both Ferrari drivers (Vettel and Raikkonen) and Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen resulted in Hamilton going to the lead and leading every one of the race’s 58 laps. Bottas ended up finishing on the podium in third place after starting in sixth as well.

Last season and this season, there are a boatload of additional examples.

Vettel made a way too aggressive move to try to take the lead from Bottas late in the 2018 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, and this move ruined his tires. Had he been patient, he would have won the race, as Bottas ended up with a flat tire a few laps later.

Instead, Vettel lost second place to Hamilton, and it was Hamilton who was in position to capitalize on the misfortune of his teammate.

The 2018 German Grand Prix was perhaps the most astonishing. After starting the race in 14th place after a disaster of a qualifying session, Hamilton was poised to finish in fourth. Then Vettel crashed while holding a huge lead with only a handful of laps remaining.

Bottas went from second place to the lead and Raikkonen went from third to second before both drivers came into the pits while Hamilton stayed out. As a result, Mercedes had the top two positions on the ensuring restart. They told their two drivers to hold station to secure the 1-2 finish.

Then there was the 2018 Brazilian Grand Prix. Verstappen was in position to win before he and Racing Point’s Esteban Ocon, who was battling to get back onto the lead lap, made contact. Hamilton was running in second place at the time, and he took the lead. Even with a damaged car, Verstappen was able to close to gap to Hamilton, but it was Hamilton who emerged victorious.

In the 2019 Bahrain Grand Prix, Ferrari were poised for a 1-2 finish after a front row lockout in qualifying. But Vettel spun out while battling Hamilton for second place, and then Leclerc’s engine failed while he led the race by more than 10 seconds. As a result, Hamilton won ahead of Bottas in second.

Leclerc had the pace to take the pole positions in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix and the Monaco Grand Prix this year as well. But he wrecked in the qualifying session for the former before Bottas won it ahead of Hamilton in second place, and Ferrari made a terrible strategy call in the qualifying session for the latter, preventing Leclerc from even qualifying in the top 15.

Hamilton ended up leading all 78 laps from the pole position. Bottas originally finished in fourth place but was promoted to third after Verstappen, who originally finished in second, was issued a five-second time penalty for an unsafe release in the pits.

In the Canadian Grand Prix, it was Vettel who took the checkered flag. But because he made an error that resulted in what the race stewards deemed an “unsafe entry” back onto the track ahead of Hamilton in second place, he was issued a five-second time penalty that handed Hamilton the victory.

With all things considered, Ferrari really aren’t that much slower than Mercedes. In fact, they may even be faster, and perhaps this has even been the case since the 2017 season began.

But Mercedes’ opportunism sets them apart in a big way.

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Given how opportunistic Mercedes have been in recent years, when will a team other than the Brackley-based team win a Formula 1 constructor championship, and when will a non-Mercedes driver win a driver championship? When their runs do eventually end, which team and which driver will end them? Neither one looks like it will end this year; take it to the bank.

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