NASCAR: Just how big is a "small" deficit to the cut line?

Three NASCAR Cup Series playoff drivers trail the round of 8 cut line by only thin margins. But a “small” deficit to the cut line is bigger than you might expect.

Four NASCAR Cup Series playoff drivers left the round of 12 opener at Dover International Speedway, the Drydene 400, below the round of 8 cut line with two races remaining before the round of 8 begins at Martinsville Speedway in late October.

Three of these drivers ended up below this cut line as a result of the fact that they experienced mechanical issues during this 400-lap race around the four-turn, 1.0-mile (1.609-kilometer) high-banked Monster Mile oval in Dover, Delaware.

Two of these drivers, Team Penske’s Joey Logano and Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott, only trail the round of 8 cut line by slim margins while Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney could very well find himself in a must-win situation moving forward.

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One other driver, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Clint Bowyer, trails the round of 8 cut line by a slim margin after finishing this race in 10th place.

Logano sits in ninth place in the playoff picture, but only because he is on the losing side of a tiebreaker with eighth place William Byron of Hendrick Motorsports.

Bowyer trails Byron by four points while Elliott trails him by seven points. Blaney sits 15 points further back, 22 points behind Byron.

On the surface, a four-point deficit or a seven-point deficit to the round of 8 cut line may not seem like much, especially considering the fact that there are still two more races remaining in the round of 12.

Each position in these races is worth one point, and each position in the top 10 in the first two stages in both races is worth an additional point.

So technically, a sixth place finish in the first stage of this Sunday’s race at Talladega Superspeedway puts Bowyer ahead of the round of 8 cut line while a third place finish does the same for Elliott.

But it’s a bit more complicated than that below the surface, especially in the long run.

The deficit to the round of 8 cut line is just that — the deficit to the round of 8 cut line.

It factors in any given driver below that cut line compared to the driver in the eighth and final transfer spot — and only that driver.

Bowyer making up four points over Byron throughout the remaining two races of the round of 12 does not guarantee Bowyer a spot in the round of 8, and Elliott making up seven points over Byron throughout these races does not guarantee Elliott a spot in the round of 8, either.

For Bowyer to advance to the round of 8, he needs to pass Logano in addition to Byron, all while staying ahead of Elliott and Blaney, and for Elliott to do so, he needs to pass both Bowyer and Logano in addition to Byron, all while staying ahead of Blaney.

And if they can’t do that, they will need to rely on a driver or drivers ahead of Byron struggling and falling below the cut line as well, and they would need to outscore them by even greater amounts.

The next closest drivers to Byron ahead of the round of 8 cut line are Team Penske’s Brad Keselowski and Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman. Keselowski sits in sixth place, 20 points ahead of Byron, while Bowman sits in seventh, 17 points ahead of him.

If that doesn’t happen either, they can forget about their championship hopes for 2019.

Oh, and don’t forget, a win by a lower ranking driver in the playoff picture effectively moves the cut line from between eighth and ninth place in points to between seventh and eighth.

That would make advancing even more challenging.

So there’s more to overcoming the deficit to the cut line than just making up the difference in point totals. The “small” deficits to the cut line for drivers who are more than one position below it may be small, but they are somewhat deceivingly small to the point where they can be considered extremely difficult to overcome.

At the end of the day, no matter by how much you beat the driver who starts on the cut line, you still need to do enough to finish ahead of three other drivers to advance from the round of 12 to the round of 8.

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With two races remaining in the round of 12 of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, will any drivers who currently sit below the round of 8 cut line overcome their current deficits to that cut line, or will the eight drivers who currently sit above it remain above it?

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NASCAR: Just how big is a “small” deficit to the cut line?

By Asher Fair | Oct 11, 2019

Three NASCAR Cup Series playoff drivers trail the round of 8 cut line by only thin margins. But a “small” deficit to the cut line is bigger than you might expect.