NASCAR Cup Series playoff scenarios to monitor closely at Kansas

Everyone above the round of 8 cut line with one race remaining in the round of 12 of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs appears to be well above it. But that’s not exactly the case.

Exiting the second of three races in the round of 12 of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, two drivers are locked into the round of 8 while six others are at least 18 points above the round of 8 cut line.

It’s hard to say that any one of these six drivers is truly “uncomfortable” heading into the round of 12 finale at Kansas Speedway considering the fact that 18 points is certainly not a small margin; in fact, as we saw after the round of 12 opener, even a four-point margin or a seven-point margin is not as small as it seems.

However, if certain scenarios play out in Sunday’s 267-lap race around the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) Kansas Speedway oval in Kansas City, Kansas, the playoff picture could be shaken up even more so than it was after Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney won at Talladega Superspeedway after starting the race in the 12th and final position in the playoff picture.

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NBC runs their side-by-side with the playoff picture “as they run” throughout the playoff races, which can be very convenient considering stage points are now awarded in addition to regular points for race finishes.

But if you take the following tables, you can effectively create your own “as they run” charts to monitor some of these key scenarios throughout Sunday’s race simply by plugging in where the drivers run and how many points their results would produce, be it in an individual stage, both stages, the end of the race, or any combination thereof.

The first of these battles is the battle among the four drivers below the round of 8 cut line to get above it.

Had Blaney not won the 1000Bulbs.com 500, it would be Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman above the round of 8 cut line in the eighth and final transfer spot. Instead, it is Team Penske’s Joey Logano, who sits 18 points ahead of Bowman, thus increasing the gaps of the other drivers who are below that cut line to the cut line by 18 points each.

Without complicating things with the 3,000+ point totals, here is a simple chart illustrating how the six drivers within striking distance of the round of 8 cut line stack up against one another as things run right now.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
7th – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 29 (+20)
8th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 27 (+18)
————————— ROUND OF 8 CUT LINE —————————
9th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 9 (-18)
10th – Chase Elliott, #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 5 (-22)
11th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 3 (-24)
12th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 0 (-27)

Obviously if one of Bowman, Elliott, Bowyer or Byron wins, Keselowski ends up effectively being in the eighth and final transfer spot with four other drivers, one being Logano, aiming to catch his effective point total of 29.

Here is how these five drivers would stack up against one another using the simplified point totals.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points
8th – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 29 (+2)
————————— ROUND OF 8 CUT LINE —————————
9th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 27 (-2)
10th* – Alex Bowman / Chase Elliott, 9/5 (-20/-24)
11th* – Chase Elliott / Clint Bowyer, 5/3 (-24/-26)
12th* – Clint Bowyer / William Byron, 3/0 (-26/-29)

*=vary depending on who wins

The four drivers who sit above Keselowski and Logano in the playoff picture but haven’t yet locked themselves into the round of 6 are Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch as well as Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick.

All four of these drivers are at least 36 points ahead of the round of 8 cut line, while Keselowski and Logano are both within 20 points of it. In fact, as shown above, they are both within only 29 points of last place in the playoff picture.

If somebody other than Bowman, Elliott, Bowyer or Byron wins, then Hamlin, Truex, Busch and Harvick should be safe to advance to the round of 8.

Here are their effective point totals, relative to the round of 8 cut line.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points
3rd – Denny Hamlin, #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 56
4th – Martin Truex Jr., #19, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 48
5th – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 41
6th – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 36
7th – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 20
8th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 18
————————— ROUND OF 8 CUT LINE —————————
9th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 0 (-18)

But because of how big the dropoff is from Logano to Bowman (18 points), a win by Bowman, Elliott, Bowyer or Byron would change that, as it would effectively move each of them, them being Hamlin, Truex, Busch, Harvick, Keselowski and Logano, 18 points closer to the round of 8 cut line in a negative direction.

In the cases of Hamlin and Truex, they would still be pretty far ahead of that cut line. But in the cases of Busch and Harvick, a bad result could put a shocking end to their championship hopes for 2019, just as it could for Keselowski and Logano.

Here are there effective point totals, relative to the round of 8 cut line, assuming Bowman, Elliott, Bowyer or Byron wins.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points
4th – Denny Hamlin, #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 38
5th – Martin Truex Jr., #19, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 30
6th – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 23
7th – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 16
8th – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 2
————————— ROUND OF 8 CUT LINE —————————
9th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 0 (-2)

Let’s also not forget about Chip Ganassi Racing’s Kyle Larson, who hasn’t been mentioned once in this article due to the fact that he gets to avoid all of this drama after winning the round of 12 opener at Dover International Speedway. He has already punched his ticket to the round of 8 as a result of that victory.

The Hollywood Casino 400 is scheduled to end the round of 12 of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs this Sunday, October 20. The race is set to be broadcast live on NBC from Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET.