Formula 1: How Valtteri Bottas can still catch Lewis Hamilton

By Asher Fair | Oct 24, 2019

SUZUKA, JAPAN - OCTOBER 13: Race winner Valtteri Bottas of Finland and Mercedes GP celebrates after the F1 Grand Prix of Japan at Suzuka Circuit on October 13, 2019 in Suzuka, Japan. (Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images) /

Simply put, he can’t. Mathematically put, Valtteri Bottas can, in fact, still catch Lewis Hamilton to win the 2019 Formula 1 championship. Here’s how.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport’s Lewis Hamilton took control of the 2019 Formula 1 world championship after his dominant performance in the Spanish Grand Prix, a race teammate Valtteri Bottas entered as the points leader and polesitter with a chance to really stake his claim for this year’s title.

Hamilton hasn’t looked back, and really since the weeks after that dominant performance, it has been a matter of when, not if, he will clinch the 2019 championship to become just the second six-time champion in Formula 1 history.

But he hasn’t mathematically secured it yet with four of the season’s 21 races remaining on the schedule.

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Aside of Hamilton, Bottas is the only driver who hasn’t been mathematically eliminated from title contention. He trails the 34-year-old Briton by 64 points (338 to 274) in the driver standings heading into the Mexican Grand Prix at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez this Sunday, October 27.

There is still a maximum of 104 points on the table for each driver throughout the rest of the season, as there is a maximum of 26 points (25 for winning and one for recording the fastest lap) on the table for each driver in each race.

To win the championship, Bottas must outscore Hamilton by at least 65 points throughout the season’s final four races, as Hamilton has already clinched the tiebreaker over the 30-year-old Finn. Hamilton has won nine races while Bottas has won three, meaning that even if Bottas wins out, he will still be two wins shy of Hamilton’s win total for the year.

This means that if Hamilton scores 40 points, the equivalent of four fifth place finishes, he will win the 2019 championship.

Let’s assume he doesn’t manage to do that.

At worst, he could score no points, in which case Bottas would still need to score at least 65. The simplest route would be via two wins and a third place finish, but he could also pull this off without winning, most simply with three second place finishes and then another top four result.

But Hamilton isn’t going to score no points.

Okay — let’s be honest. He isn’t going to score fewer than 40 points, either; he hasn’t scored fewer than 61 points in a four-race span all year long.

But if he does, he isn’t go to score that much fewer than 40 points.

Fortunately for Hamilton, he can afford to score between 33 and 39 points to put Bottas in a position where he would need to win each of the season’s final four races to win the championship, even if he secures all four bonus points.

Three wins and a second place finish along with four bonus points would next Bottas 97 points, just 64 more than Hamilton’s 33 and not enough to beat him to the title.

For Hamilton, 33 points would be considered low for him over a two-race span. So while Bottas could technically remain mathematically eligible to win the championship even if he doesn’t win the Mexican Grand Prix, he is effectively in a must-win situation at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez just to keep his already extremely slim hope alive.

So how can Bottas still catch Hamilton? A miracle; that’s about it.

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The odds of Valtteri Bottas actually running down Lewis Hamilton and taking the 2019 Formula 1 championship away from him are slim. But the fact is, it could still happen. Will Bottas keep this dream alive following the Mexican Grand Prix? This race is set to be broadcast live on ABC from Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City, Mexico beginning at 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 27.

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