NASCAR: Any duo could join Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick, and it’s not complicated

Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick are locked into the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4, leaving two open spots remaining in the round. Here’s why it’s not far-fetched for any duo among the six remaining championship contenders to join them.

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. opened up the round of 8 of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with a victory at Martinsville Speedway to secure himself a spot in the Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway for the third consecutive season and the fourth time in the last five years.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick followed up Truex’s dominant performance with a victory of his own at Texas Motor Speedway to lock himself into the Championship 4 for the third consecutive season and the fifth time in six years.

This means that two Championship 4 spots are still up for grabs heading into the round of 8 finale at ISM Raceway.

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Six drivers will be vying for those two spots in this 312-lap race around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) oval in Avondale, Arizona.

Which two drivers will advance to the 267-lap season finale around the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Florida with a shot to win the 2019 championship?

Any combination of two of the six remaining championship contenders (aside of Truex and Harvick) could still advance, and it’s not as complicated as it seems despite the fact that each of the four drivers who sit below the Championship 4 cut line sit at least 20 points below it.

Here is the current playoff picture among these six drivers heading into the round of 8 finale at ISM Raceway.

Rank – Driver – Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
3rd – Kyle Busch – #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4113 (+22)
4th – Joey Logano – #22, Team Penske, Ford: 4111 (+20)
————————— CHAMPIONSHIP 4 CUT LINE —————————
5th – Denny Hamlin – #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4091 (-20)
6th – Kyle Larson – #42, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 4088 (-23)
6th – Ryan Blaney – #12, Team Penske, Ford: 4088 (-23)
8th – Chase Elliott – #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 4033 (-78)

There are 15 possible combinations for these drivers to end up in the Championship 4. Each of these six drivers is involved in five of them.

Here’s a list.

1. Busch, Logano
2. Busch, Hamlin
3. Busch, Larson
4. Busch, Blaney
5. Busch, Elliott
6. Logano, Hamlin
7. Logano, Larson
8. Logano, Blaney
9. Logano, Elliott
10. Hamlin, Larson
11. Hamlin, Blaney
12. Hamlin, Elliott
13. Larson, Blaney
14. Larson, Elliott
15. Blaney, Elliott

The simplest way to illustrate how none of these combinations are far-fetched is by using Elliott. Elliott is the one driver who absolutely must win the round of 8 finale in order to advance to the Championship 4.

Assuming he wins, one driver will get in on points. That driver could be anybody, because the other five drivers are all within 25 points of one another, and only two of them are ahead of any of the others by more than three points.

As we know from the round of 12, making up 25 points on another driver isn’t impossible. Elliott made up 25 points on Team Penske’s Brad Keselowski in the round of 12 finale to advance to the round of 8 without winning it.

What’s to stop somebody such as Larson or Blaney from doing the same, even if another round of 8 driver wins the round of 8 finale?

Which two drivers will join Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway? The round of 8 finale, the Bluegreen Vacations 500, is set to be broadcast live on NBC from ISM Raceway beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, November 10.