NASCAR: Who advances at Phoenix? History favors the underdog

Which two drivers will join Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway?

ISM Raceway is set to play host to the third and final race of the round of 8 of the four-round, 10-race 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, the Bluegreen Vacations 500, this Sunday, November 10.

In this 312-lap race around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) ISM Raceway oval in Avondale, Arizona, two drivers will punch their tickets to the Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Either one will do so by winning the race and another will do so based on his point total, or they will both to do based on their point totals.

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Either way, two of six remaining championship eligible drivers will join the two drivers who have already locked up spots in the Championship 4, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. and Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick.

The two drivers who currently sit above the Championship 4 cut line are Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch and Team Penske’s Joey Logano. They sit 22 points and 20 points above that cut line, respectively. The four drivers who currently sit below it are Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney, Chip Ganassi Racing’s Kyle Larson and Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott. The trail it by 20, 23, 23 and 78 points, respectively.

Who are the odds-on favorites to join Truex and Harvick?

Elliott is the only driver in a must-win situation, as each of the other five drivers are within 25 points of one another. While a 25-point margin can be a challenge to overcome without winning, it is doable; in fact, Elliott did it at the end of the round of 12 to advance to the round of 8.

But there are a few other things to consider. Truex and Harvick are both former champions, with the former winning the 2017 title and the latter winning the 2014 title, the maiden title secured in the Championship 4-based modern playoff format.

Busch and Logano are also former champions, with the former winning the 2015 title and the latter being the reigning champion.

Since 2007, seven different drivers have won championships. Five of those seven drivers have won their first titles during this span. Yet since 2007 when Jimmie Johnson won his second title, no driver has been crowned champion for a second time.

This is the case despite the fact that there has been at least one one-time champion in each of the Championship 4s going back to 2015. In fact, in both 2017 and 2018, there were three one-time champions and one non-champion in it. The non-champion won both times.

It goes without saying that Busch and Logano are naturally the odds-on favorites to join Truex and Harvick given their current positions relative to the cut line. But this would ensure the sport’s first two-time champion in more than a decade, and it would also result in a repeat Championship 4 from last year as well as the first repeat champion in the Championship 4 era.

Meanwhile, none of the four drivers who sit below the Championship 4 cut line have ever won a title. But they all have what it takes to advance and change that; they have combined to win 10 races this year, including four — one by each of them — in the first eight races of the playoffs.

Don’t be surprised to see one of them climb their way up into the Championship 4, via points or a win (or perhaps one driver doing each), and don’t be surprised if one of those drivers upsets his way to the title in just over a week. It’s not like it’s all that far-fetched, and given recent trends, you may want to think twice about assuming that Busch and Logano are write-ins to advance.

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What will the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 look like in just over a week on Sunday, November 17? Tune in to NBC at 2:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, November 10 for the live broadcast of the Bluegreen Vacations 500 from ISM Raceway to find out which two drivers will join Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick in that round with a chance to be crowned champion.

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