Formula 1: Max Verstappen holds the key to dethroning Lewis Hamilton

In the V6 turbo hybrid era of Formula 1, Lewis Hamilton has effectively become world champion indefinitely. But Max Verstappen holds the key to dethroning him, and it has never been more clear than it was in the Brazilian Grand Prix.

Excluding a five-point defeat to Mercedes teammate Nico Rosberg in the 2016 Formula 1 championship, Lewis Hamilton has owned the V6 turbo hybrid era of Formula 1, winning five of the six world championships, including each of the last three.

The question has really become who will be the next driver not named Hamilton to win a world title, and with the 34-year-old Briton set to enter the 2020 season as the favorite once again, it’s a question that will continue to be asked.

One driver holds the key to dethroning Hamilton, and that driver is Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen.

The Brazilian Grand Prix at Interlagos, the penultimate race of the season, exemplified this to a T.

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It’s no secret that Red Bull Racing aren’t quite on the level of Mercedes, and they will likely need to make big improvements to retain Verstappen, who is under contract through the 2020 season, through 2021 and perhaps beyond.

But whether Verstappen ends up staying with the Milton Keynes-based team or going elsewhere in the 2021 season, he has shown that he is the biggest threat to Hamilton’s championship streak.

The 22-year-old Dutchman secured his eighth career victory in this 71-lap race around the 15-turn, 2.677-mile (4.308-kilometer) Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace road course in Sao Paulo, Brazil prior to his season-ending runner-up effort to Hamilton in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina Circuit.

This was a race that was really between him and Hamilton. Verstappen had the pace to defeat the six-time world champion — just as he did at Interlagos a year ago before he was taken out by Esteban Ocon — and he showed it, blowing past him even after ROKiT Williams Racing’s Robert Kubica blatantly blocked him coming out of the pits, nearly sending him into the wall.

Mercedes are by far the smoothest operation in Formula 1, having taken 94 of the pole position and 89 of the victories in the 121 races that have been contested since the V6 turbo hybrid era began in the 2014 season.

But when things go wrong for them, they tend to really go wrong not just for one driver but for the entire team, for one reason or another. An alarming statistic about this particular phenomenon is the fact that in the last three races in which at least one of their drivers has been forced to retire, the other has finished no higher than seventh place. The average finish for the team’s higher finisher in these three races is just 10.33.

Perhaps even more alarming are Hamilton’s statistics in the races that Verstappen has won.

Several of these instances of poor performances for the six-time champion have had nothing to do with Verstappen, most notably his collision with teammate Nico Rosberg on lap one of the 2016 Spanish Grand Prix. Verstappen going on to secure his maiden win and Hamilton officially being scored in 21st place had nothing to do with a battle between the two drivers.

Nevertheless, there is a correlation within several other of these instances.

Here is a list of Hamilton’s results in Verstappen’s eight victories.

2016 Spanish Grand Prix – RETIRED (21st)
2017 Malaysian Grand Prix – 2nd
2017 Mexican Grand Prix – 9th
2018 Austrian Grand Prix – RETIRED (16th)
2018 Mexican Grand Prix – 4th
2019 Austrian Grand Prix – 5th
2019 German Grand Prix – 9th
2019 Brazilian Grand Prix – 7th

Average finish: 9.13 (including retirements), 6.00 (excluding retirements)

The 2017 Malaysian Grand Prix featured Hamilton’s best performance; Verstappen simply drove by him early on and won the race while Hamilton held on for second place. But he has never been on the podium for a Verstappen victory since then.

In the 2017 Mexican Grand Prix, it was first-lap contact with Sebastian Vettel as Hamilton tried to go around the outside of Verstappen that set him back, and he could only recover for a ninth place finish. Verstappen led all 71 laps of this race.

The 2018 Austrian Grand Prix was Hamilton’s race to lose, especially after teammate Valtteri Bottas, who started the race from the pole position, was forced to retire with a hydraulics issue.

But while Verstappen was smart and came into the pits during the virtual safety car period, for some reason Hamilton’s team decided to leave him out on the track, effectively giving the win away to Verstappen. It only got worse, as a fuel pressure issue forced Hamilton to retire, his only retirement in the last 67 races.

In the 2018 Mexican Grand Prix, Verstappen was simply the class of the field, and Mercedes had nothing for him, one of the few races in the V6 turbo hybrid era for which this can be said. Hamilton finished 78.738 seconds behind Verstappen — still better than one-plus lap behind in 2017.

Hamilton took a grid penalty after making a mistake in qualifying for the 2019 Austrian Grand Prix. Verstappen qualified on the front row, and Hamilton damaged the front wing of his car while overdriving it in an attempt to make up ground.

While the heating issues that Mercedes faced in this race were partially to blame for Hamilton’s struggles, Bottas still managed to finish on the podium. Verstappen won the race even after a disastrous start sent him back to seventh place in turn one on the opening lap.

The 2019 German Grand Prix was Hamilton’s race to lose as well. Verstappen himself even spun out in the early stages due to the rain. But then Hamilton lost control of his car in the rain, and Verstappen ended up in the lead.

While Verstappen was putting on a clinic in the wet conditions, opening up massive gaps on the rest of the field that were continuously negated by safety cars, Hamilton found himself continuing to struggle, at one point spinning out again and finding himself well outside of the top 10.

He finished in 11th place, but two post-race penalties to top 10 finishers Kimi Raikkonen and Antonio Giovinazzi of Alfa Romeo Racing promoted him to ninth.

Then most recently in the 2019 Brazilian Grand Prix, Hamilton tried to counter Verstappen’s tire strategy twice, first by inheriting the lead during the first safety car period when Verstappen pit for new tires and dropped to second place, and second by pitting for new tires and dropping back to fourth during the second safety car period when Verstappen stayed out front.

From fourth place with two laps remaining, Hamilton moved into third with relative ease over Scuderia Toro Rosso’s Pierre Gasly. But then he made an uncharacteristic mistake, making contact with and spinning out Red Bull Racing rookie Alexander Albon from second.

Hamilton crossed the line in third place well behind Verstappen and slightly behind Gasly, but he was issued a five-second time penalty that he admitted he deserved, dropping him to seventh.

I’m sure there are some fans out there who believe that Verstappen’s success stems from Hamilton’s failures. But the pace that Verstappen has shown and when the majority of Hamilton’s mistakes have occurred in Verstappen-won races illustrate clearly that the opposite is true.

You really have to wonder if Hamilton would be driving on pins and needles if Verstappen had an equally quick car. He’s not unbeatable, as Rosberg proved in the latter stages of the 2015 season and then throughout the 2016 season.

Of course, there have been instances in which Hamilton has outdriven Verstappen when the two were equally quick. This year’s Hungarian Grand Prix comes to mind. Verstappen had what it took to fend off Hamilton, then Hamilton made the race-winning move to come into the pits again for new tires, allowing him to make up the gap and pass Verstappen for the victory with only a handful of laps remaining.

It’s not like Verstappen would blow Hamilton away. But he would certainly give him a run for his money, something the six-time world champion hasn’t gotten from anybody in recent years.

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When the day comes and a Formula 1 champion other than Lewis Hamilton is crowned, will it be Max Verstappen who has defeated him? Will Hamilton perhaps retire before somebody else beats him to a world championship? Verstappen has shown he has what it takes. Now he just needs the speed and consistency in his car to do it throughout an entire season.

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