Did the idea of Lewis Hamilton leaving Mercedes after the 2020 Formula 1 season bring about Max Verstappen’s recent contract extension with Red Bull Racing?
Max Verstappen signed a three-year contract extension with Red Bull Racing back in October of 2017, keeping him with the team through the 2020 Formula 1 season.
Verstappen, like many of the other 19 drivers set to compete in the upcoming 22-race campaign, was set to become a free agent after the 2020 season as a part of a loaded free agent class, and he was arguably the top free agent in this class.
But last week, more than two months before the 2020 season is even scheduled to get underway at Melbourne Grand Prix Circuit with the Australian Grand Prix, the 22-year-old Dutchman signed another three-year contract extension with the Milton Keynes-based team, tying him to the organization through 2023.
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It was initially believed that it would take improvements from Red Bull Racing in their second season with Honda as their engine manufacturer to be able to get Verstappen to sign a new deal.
The gap between the team and six-time reigning champions Mercedes is still quite wide despite the fact that Verstappen won a career-high three races and finished in a career-high third place in the driver standings in the team’s first season with the Japanese manufacturer.
However, that obviously wasn’t the case.
Yes, Red Bull Racing are aiming to take a big step forward and contend for the 2020 world championship, and they could absolutely do it. But with no 2020 data on which Verstappen could base anything, he signed a new deal anyway.
Could this have been prompted by Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes?
Had Verstappen left Red Bull Racing, he likely would have ended up at Mercedes. He has been rumored to end up there for several seasons, and he recently refused to rule out this possibility.
Additionally, the only other logical option for him would have been Ferrari, and he and Ferrari recently both burnt their respective bridges as far as making that happened is concerned. He likely wouldn’t have ended up there anyway with the team having committed to Charles Leclerc as the base upon which they are planning to build by signing him through at least the 2024 season.
Hamilton’s Mercedes contract is set to expire after the 2020 season, and he has been rumored to join Ferrari as the replacement for Sebastian Vettel, whose contract is also set to expire after the 2020 season.
These rumors have only heated up in recent weeks, with one source saying that it is “certain” that Hamilton will join the Scuderia and that Mercedes team principal and CEO Toto Wolff will join him.
If Hamilton leaves for Ferrari, to whom would Mercedes turn?
It’s not rocket science.
Yes, Mercedes junior driver and current Williams driver George Russell is also in the picture, but Williams stated that he is not going anywhere until at least after the 2021 season.
Additionally, Valtteri Bottas, whose Mercedes deal also ends after the 2020 season, has not demonstrated that he has what it takes to win a world championship with the Silver Arrows, having scored seven victories to Hamilton’s 31 since the two became teammates ahead of the 2017 season.
So a Hamilton departure could prompt an entire lineup shakeup since Bottas is primarily there to serve as somewhat of a number two driver to Hamilton. Yes, he won a career-high four races in 2019, but Hamilton hasn’t won fewer than nine since 2013, and he won 11 in 2019, getting into double digits for the fifth time in the last six years.
In that case, even if Mercedes were able to pry Russell free of his Williams deal, we’d still potentially be looking at Verstappen with the Brackley-based team.
But not anymore.
Fortunately, despite having been put in quite a precarious situation, they could still be in position to sign somebody such as Daniel Ricciardo, whose Renault deal ends after 2020, if Hamilton leaves and they do end up in a bind, to which they respond by overhauling their driver lineup.
But now their potential top target is off the market and their six-time world champion driver could still very well depart within a year.
Is the situation involving Lewis Hamilton and his future (or lack thereof) at Mercedes the reason why Red Bull Racing locked up Max Verstappen through the 2023 Formula 1 season rather early, or was he poised to re-sign with the team regardless like team principal Christian Horner indicated? Will Red Bull Racing and Honda give him a competitive enough car to compete for the 2020 world championship?