NASCAR: Two races in, the playoff picture looks insane

The first two races of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season likely aren’t the best indication of what is to come throughout the entire year. Nevertheless, the playoff picture looks quite crazy at the moment.

Two of the 36 races on the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series schedule are in the books. But other than the fact that the usual suspects have been victorious so far this year, nothing else has gone according to plan.

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin won the season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway for the second year in a row. Then Team Penske’s Joey Logano won the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube in a Pennzoil-sponsored car at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, also for the second consecutive season.

Beyond that, it has been mayhem.

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With all due respect to the drivers who have had success to start the season, there have been a lot of surprises.

Suffice it to say that these first two races likely won’t be an indication of what is to come throughout the remaining eight and a half months of the season.

As a result, the playoff picture right now looks like it was thrown together by a random name picker. But even though that probably won’t hold up, take a look at just how crazy it looks right now.

NOTES: Italics mean the driver has clinched a playoff berth with a win. PP=playoff points. Numbers in parenthesis indicate (a) playoff point differential to leader among drivers who have clinched playoff berths or (b) distance above or below the playoff cut line. Only confirmed full-time drivers are included in this chart.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
1st – Denny Hamlin, #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 1 WIN (6 PP (-))
2nd – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 1 WIN (5 PP (-1))
3rd – Ryan Blaney, #12, Team Penske, Ford: 85 (+37)
4th – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 81 (+33)
5th – Kyle Larson, #42, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 70 (+22)
6th – Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #47, JTG Daugherty Racing, Chevrolet: 66 (+18)
7th – Chase Elliott, #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 65 (+17)
8th – Austin Dillon, #3, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 63 (+15)
9th – Chris Buescher, #17, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 61 (+13)
10th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 60 (+12)
10th – Matt DiBenedetto, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 60 (+12)
12th – Bubba Wallace, #43, Richard Petty Motorsports, Chevrolet: 59 (+11)
13th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 56 (+8)
14th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 51 (+3)
15th – Martin Truex Jr., #19, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 50 (+2)
15th – Corey LaJoie, #32, Go Fas Racing, Ford: 50 (+2)
—————————PLAYOFF CUT LINE—————————
17th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 48 (-2)
18th – John Hunter Nemechek, #38, Front Row Motorsports, Ford: 39 (-11)
19th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 38 (-12)
19th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 38 (-12)
19th – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 38 (-12)
22nd – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 36 (-14)
23rd – Ty Dillon, #13, Germain Racing, Chevrolet: 35 (-15)
24th – Brennan Poole, #15, Premium Motorsports, Chevrolet: 29 (-21)
24th – Tyler Reddick, #8, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 29 (-21)
26th – Cole Custer, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 25 (-25)
26th – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 25 (-25)
28th – Michael McDowell, #34, Front Row Motorsports, Ford: 24 (-26)
29th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 19 (-31)
30th – Christopher Bell, #95, Leavine Family Racing, Toyota: 12 (-38)
31st – Ryan Preece, #37, JTG Daugherty Racing, Chevrolet: 9 (-41)
32nd – Daniel Suarez, #96, Gaunt Brothers Racing, Toyota: 7 (-43)
33rd – Quin Houff, #00, StarCom Racing, Chevrolet: 6 (-44)

Question: Who would have predicted any of this?

Of the 16 drivers above the playoff cut line, only nine were in last year’s playoffs. Of the seven who weren’t, three have never even been in the playoffs: Matt DiBenedetto, Bubba Wallace and Corey LaJoie. They all drive for one-car teams that have technical alliances with some of the bigger organizations.

The highest Toyota driver in the actual championship standings is Denny Hamlin (60 points), and he is only in a ninth place tie despite winning the season opener. Hamlin’s win is Joe Gibbs Racing’s only top 13 finish this year.

Chase Elliott sitting in sixth place is one of the few non-surprises of this playoff picture. But even that sixth place standing is a bit of a surprise, as he hasn’t finished better than 17th yet, and his average finish is 21.50.

David Ragan, who isn’t listed because his Daytona 500 entry was a one-off, still has more points (33) than reigning champion Kyle Busch (25).

No driver has recorded two top seven finishes this season. The three four-car teams (Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing and Hendrick Motorsports) have combined for just one top four finish (Hamlin’s win).

Only Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson, two of the least surprising drivers above the playoff cut line, have recorded two top 10 finishes. But neither has finished a race in the top four, and yet both are in the top four in the point standings.

Larson may be the highest Chevrolet driver in the standings, but it is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. who has the best finish for a Chevrolet driver this season with his third place effort at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Behind him? Fourth place Austin Dillon. Neither driver made the playoffs last year.

Answer: Nobody

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What will the 16-driver playoff field for the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season end up looking like? There is still a long way to go, 24 of 26 regular season races to be exact, before the field is set, and it likely won’t look anything like it does now. The third race on the schedule is scheduled to take place this afternoon at Auto Club Speedway. This race, the Auto Club 400, is set to be broadcast live on Fox beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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