NASCAR: Besides Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, who will contend at Phoenix?

With Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch posting the best stats at Phoenix Raceway in recent years, who are the other drivers most likely to grab the NASCAR Cup Series win on Sunday afternoon?

Kevin Harvick has dominated at Phoenix Raceway in the NASCAR Cup Series, winning seven of the last 15 races at the track dating back to November of 2012. He and Kyle Busch (two wins) are the only repeat winners during that time, with Busch having won two of the last three races there.

But there were some surprise winners during this span too, such as Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2015 and Ryan Newman in 2017. With an increasing variety of Phoenix winners over the last few years, including six in the last seven races, who will be the next driver not named Harvick or Busch to win at the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) oval in Avondale, Arizona?

The most recent winner was Denny Hamlin in November, and he has to be considered a favorite to win again this time around. He ranks next behind Harvick and Busch over the last 10 Phoenix races with one win, four top five finishes, seven top 10 finishes, 380 laps led and an average finish of 10.9.

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He was also good on the one-mile tracks overall in 2019 (Phoenix Raceway, Dover International Speedway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway). He had four top five finishes (tied for the most with Harvick) and an average finish of 6.8 (fourth best) in five races.

The #11 Toyota could certainly go back-to-back at the desert track.

If we look beyond past Phoenix winners, two drivers to watch are Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr.

Despite looking for their maiden victories at the track, they’ve collected the most points over the last 10 Phoenix races behind Busch, Harvick and Hamlin. During that time, Larson recorded four top five finishes, six top 10 finishes and an average finish of 11.9. Truex recorded three top five finishes, five top 10 finishes and an average finish of 11.6.

Larson and Truex both visited victory lane at the one-mile Dover oval last year, and they have similar numbers on the one-mile ovals overall. Both drivers had three top five finishes, while Truex edged Larson with five top 10 finishes to four.

Truex led all drivers on one-mile tracks last season with an average finish of 3.4. A 33rd place result at New Hampshire Motor Speedway lowered Larson’s average finish on these tracks to 9.4. Excluding that result, it would have been 3.5.

Truex and Larson have been flying under the radar for too long at Phoenix and have a good chance to add their name to the track’s winners’ trophy.

If you’re looking for a longshot to win, look no further than Ryan Blaney or Aric Almirola.

Statistically speaking, Blaney is a longshot, but his strong start to the 2020 season could make him a possible favorite instead.

Part of the reason for Blaney not ranking near the top in Phoenix stats is because he is newer to the Cup Series than those top-ranked drivers.

Blaney has taken part in the last eight Phoenix races, and he has recorded two top five finishes, four top 10 finishes and an average finish of 14.2. His 108 laps led and two poles show that he has the pace, while his pair of third place finishes in 2019 add the element of momentum.

Blaney had three top-five finishes and an average finish of 12.0 on one-mile tracks last year, 6.25 excluding a 35th place finish at Dover.

But the true longshot to visit victory lane is Almirola.

Almirola has two top five finishes, five top 10 finishes and an average finish of 12.7 over the last 10 Phoenix races. He ranks ninth in points accumulated during that time and seventh in average finish.

While he had only one top 10 finish and an average result of 14.0 on one-mile tracks last season, that top 10 finish was a fourth place finish in the March event at Phoenix.

Given his solid numbers at the track, Almirola can be considered one of the top longshots to grab the victory on Sunday afternoon.

While Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have been the top drivers in NASCAR Cup Series races at Phoenix Raceway in recent years, don’t be surprised if one of these other drivers beats them to the finish line on the last lap of this Sunday’s FanShield 500, which is set to be broadcast live beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET on Fox.