NASCAR Cup Series: A tale of dominance vs. execution

Hendrick Motorsports have been the team to beat throughout the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series. But Team Penske continue to beat them.

Looking at the statistics from the first nine races of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season, it is amazing that Hendrick Motorsports have only managed to win two races.

Of course, that still puts them on pace for their best season in several years. One quarter of the way through the season, they are on pace for eight wins; they haven’t won more than four races in a year since 2016 when they won five, and they haven’t won eight in a year since 2015 when they won nine.

From the drop of the green flag at Daytona International Speedway, they have been the team to beat with Chevrolet’s new Camaro ZL1 1LE. Their problem? Teams have been able been able to do just that — beat them — specifically Team Penske.

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So far this season, Hendrick Motorsports drivers have combined to lead 780 of the 2,606 laps that have been contested. Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott alone are responsible for leading 737 of those laps. Team Penske’s three drivers have combined to lead only 689 laps.

Excluding the final stages of each race, there have been 19 stages contested so far this season. Elliott and Bowman are the only two drivers with more than two stage wins, and they have recorded five and four, respectively. William Byron has also won one, giving Rick Hendrick’s team wins in more than half of the stages. Team Penske drivers have combined to win just five.

Yet Team Penske have found victory lane four times this season, twice as many times as Hendrick Motorsports. Joey Logano has won two races, as has Brad Keselowski. Bowman and Elliott have each won just once, with Bowman winning at Auto Club Speedway and Elliott winning the second race at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Keselowski himself admitted after his surprising victory at Bristol Motor Speedway that Team Penske are still behind Hendrick Motorsports as far as performance is concerned.

“We’re just a touch behind,” he said. “I think the mile-and-a-half’s, I would say Hendrick is definitely a little better.  On the short tracks, I think we’re really, really close.”

The difference between the two teams is that Hendrick Motorsports haven’t had the level of execution that Team Penske have had.

Elliott won the first two stages of the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and had a dominant #9 Chevrolet. But a flat tire ended his chance to win. Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney led the race late, but Bowman was closing quickly.

A late caution flag threw strategy into the mix, and it robbed the race of the Blaney vs. Bowman battle which could have ensued. When those two drivers came into the pits for new tires, a move that ultimately ended up being a strategy blunder which left both outside of the top 10, it was Logano who was promoted to the lead for the final restart with two laps remaining.

He never gave it up. Even a Team Penske mistake led to a Team Penske win, and at Hendrick Motorsports’ expense.

Then at Phoenix Raceway, Elliott dominated the race before a loose wheel derailed his chance to win. He did manage to battle back up into the lead group, but it was Logano who prevailed for another victory.

At Charlotte Motor Speedway, Elliott was well-positioned to finally get his first win of the season, as he was several seconds ahead of Keselowski in second place. Then a situation emerged similar to the one at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, as the caution flag flew late.

Elliott came into the pits for new tires, giving Keselowski the lead on the final restart. Elliott was able to pass several cars before the checkered flag flew, but he couldn’t get back to Keselowski, who secured his first win in over a year.

Most recently at Bristol Motor Speedway, Elliott had the lead on the final restart with five laps remaining ahead of Logano. The two battled closely over the next few laps before contact derailed both of their chances to win.

Who happened to be running in third place and thus promoted to the lead? Keselowski.

“It was just such a turn of events,” he reflected. “Felt like I was sitting in Vegas, playing poker, and I got all the turns. They call it the river. All the turns went my way. Went from having a bad hand to having a full house real quick.”

Again, even a Team Penske missed opportunity resulted in a Team Penske win, and again, it happened at the expense of Hendrick Motorsports.

On paper, Hendrick Motorsports could be looking at five or six victories so far this season if their execution were on par with that of Team Penske, and that’s without even bringing up the wreck between Elliott and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch at Darlington Raceway that surely cost Elliott another victory.

Unfortunately for them, despite the improved speed compared to recent years and their insane amount of laps led and stage wins, things simply haven’t gone their way in many of the 50-50 situations.