NASCAR playoff race heats up at halfway mark

Half of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series regular season is in the books following Monday’s race at Talladega Superspeedway, and the playoff race is heating up.

With his second consecutive 0.007-second victory in a Monday race at Talladega Superspeedway, Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney officially became the eighth driver to punch his ticket into the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.

Blaney entered this race — and many of the races leading up to this 191-lap race around the four-turn, 2.66-mile (4.281-kilometer) high-banked oval in Lincoln, Alabama — as the highest ranking driver in the championship standings who had not won a race.

After securing this victory, the driver of the #12 Ford vaulted to third place in the standings, and now the top eight drivers in points are the eight drivers who have found victory lane through the first 13 races of the 26-race regular season.

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Of course, the regular season officially still only features 24 races, as races at Michigan International Speedway and Dover International Speedway, which had to be moved from their initial dates due to the coronavirus pandemic, have not yet been rescheduled. However, their new dates will likely be revealed in the very near future.

Monday’s race at Talladega Superspeedway was originally slated to be the 10th race of the season on Sunday, April 26, but the pandemic caused it to be shifted to Sunday, June 21 before rain further postponed it to Monday, June 22.

Its position as the race to mark the halfway mark of the season helped to illustrate the idea that as cliché as it sounds, every point matters.

Why? Because the regular season finale is also slated to be a superspeedway race, as it is slated to be held at Daytona International Speedway for the first time ever.

Several drivers who weren’t and still aren’t on the inside of that 16-driver playoff bubble had great chances to win Monday’s GEICO 500 on the final lap alone. Those drivers included Roush Fenway Racing’s Chris Buescher, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Erik Jones, JTG Daugherty Racing’s Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Front Row Motorsports rookie John Hunter Nemechek.

Sure, it was ultimately Blaney, one of the favorites and already a likely playoff driver, who prevailed to win a race that featured 56 lead changes, the most in nearly a decade.

But it may very well be an underdog who takes the checkered flag at Daytona International Speedway on Saturday, August 29 to lock up an unlikely last-gasp playoff spot that would not have otherwise been earned on points.

The battle to get into the playoffs is already intense. One point currently separates the 16th place driver and the 17th place driver at the regular season’s halfway mark, and if an underdog ends up victorious at Daytona — or at any of the other tracks remaining on the regular season schedule — 16th place in points won’t be enough.

The 15th place driver and 16th place driver are separated by just six points, and the 14th place driver and 15th place driver are separated by just seven points.

Let’s take a look at the current playoff picture.

NOTE: This playoff picture includes only full-time drivers who are playoff eligible. PP=playoff points for drivers who have already won this season.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points/Wins (Behind)
1st – Denny Hamlin, #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 3 WINS (18 PP (-))
2nd – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 2 WINS (13 PP (-5))
3rd – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 2 WINS (12 PP (-6))
4th – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 2 WINS (11 PP (-7))
5th – Chase Elliott, #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 1 WIN (10 PP (-8))
6th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 1 WIN (9 PP (-9))
7th – Martin Truex Jr., #19, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 1 WIN (7 PP (-11))
8th – Ryan Blaney, #12, Team Penske, Ford: 1 WIN (6 PP (-12))
9th – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 378 (+73)
10th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 369 (+64)
11th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 353 (+48)
12th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 337 (+32)
13th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 328 (+23)
14th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 319 (+14)
15th – Matt DiBenedetto, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 312 (+7)
16th – Tyler Reddick, #8, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 306 (+1)
————————-PLAYOFF CUT LINE————————-
17th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 305 (-1)
18th – Austin Dillon, #3, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 282 (-24)
19th – Chris Buescher, #17, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 266 (-40)
20th – Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #47, JTG Daugherty Racing, Chevrolet: 263 (-43)
21st – Bubba Wallace, #43, Richard Petty Motorsports, Chevrolet: 258 (-48)
22nd – John Hunter Nemechek, #38, Front Row Motorsports, Ford: 238 (-68)
23rd – Michael McDowell, #34, Front Row Motorsports, Ford: 225 (-81)
24th – Christopher Bell, #95, Leavine Family Racing, Toyota: 210 (-96)
25th – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 204 (-102)
26th – Cole Custer, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 199 (-107)
27th – Ty Dillon, #13, Germain Racing, Chevrolet: 184 (-122)
28th – Corey LaJoie, #32, Go Fas Racing, Ford: 182 (-124)
29th – Ryan Preece, #37, JTG Daugherty Racing, Chevrolet: 158 (-148)
30th – Matt Kenseth, #42, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 131 (-175)
31st – Daniel Suarez, #96, Gaunt Brothers Racing, Toyota: 122 (-184)
32nd – Brennan Poole, #15, Premium Motorsports, Chevrolet: 93 (-213)
33rd – Quin Houff, #00, StarCom Racing, Chevrolet: 62 (-244)

Via their victories, the top eight drivers are locked into the playoffs. The Busch brothers both have more than one race worth of comfort above the playoff cut line, even if two upset winners emerge, so they are safe in ninth and 10th place.

Jimmie Johnson, Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer are also in solid positions, given that they haven’t had great starts to the season but have shown potential that should, at the very least, prevent them from falling outside of the top 16 as the season progresses.

However, William Byron, Matt DiBenedetto and Tyler Reddick are anything but comfortable. Byron should be fine, given that he struggled to start the year but has battled back in recent weeks to get up to 14th.

But DiBenedetto remains in the top 16 based on a strong start to the season, particularly a second place finish in the season’s second race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. At some point, he is going to need to do more than he has done since then, as he has recorded just two top 12 finishes in the last 12 races. He sits just seven points above the playoff cut line.

As for Reddick, he is in the danger zone. He is in as they run right now — barely — but he would be out as the 16th place driver should a driver below the cut line win, and given who some of those drivers are, that is a very real possibility.

Notably, Ryan Newman and Matt Kenseth, who were both granted playoff waivers earlier this season due to missing multiple races, are both officially playoff eligible, as they are both in the top 30 in the championship standings.

Newman actually never dropped outside of the top 30, despite missing three races with injuries suffered in a last-lap Daytona 500 crash, while Kenseth recently worked his way into it the top 30 after being out of a ride for the season’s first four races.

The second half of the regular season is scheduled to get underway this weekend at Pocono Raceway with the first ever NASCAR Cup Series doubleheader. The Pocono Organics 325 is set to be broadcast live on Fox beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, June 27 while the Pocono 350 is set to be broadcast live on Fox Sports 1 beginning at 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, June 28.