NASCAR: An alternative to random draw qualifying?

NASCAR’s random draws for starting lineups have served their purpose well the last several weeks. But is there a better way?

NASCAR recently extended the absence of true qualifying sessions through the first weekend in August, and this absence could be further extended.

This means that the starting lineups for Cup Series, Xfinity Series and Truck Series races are set to be determined by random draws from now until then, except for the second races of doubleheaders when the top 20 drivers from the first race will be inverted to set the lineup for the second.

From now until then, there are five Cup Series races, five Xfinity Series races and five Truck Series races on the schedule.

More from NASCAR

• NASCAR Cup Series: New team set to compete in 2024
• NASCAR: Will Kevin Harvick’s major record ever be broken?
• NASCAR: Surprising name continuously linked to new seat
• NASCAR driver at risk of missing the Daytona 500?
• NASCAR set for rare appearance last seen 13 years ago

These qualifying draws are not completely random in that certain drivers are placed in certain groups based on where their cars are positioned in the owner standings.

In the Cup Series, charter teams in positions 1 through 12 draw for positions 1 through 12, charter teams in positions 13 through 24 draw for positions 13 through 24 and charter teams in positions 25 through 36 draw for positions 25 through 36, while positions 37 through 40 are given to the open teams in order of owner points.

The same groupings are used for the Xfinity Series, with positions 37 through 40 going to any additional cars that are eligible to compete based on their order of eligibility.

In the Truck Series, the groups are positions 1 through 10, 11 through 21 and 22 through 33, with positions 33 through 40 going to any additional cars that are eligible to compete based on their order of eligibility.

This method has been the best NASCAR has had available without any real qualifying sessions, but it has drawn some criticism in recent weeks. Take the Cup Series, for example. Being in the top 12 in the standings has become a key talking point toward the end of most races.

Why? Because the 12th place driver has the same chance of drawing the pole position for the following race as the 13th place driver has of drawing 24th, 11 rows behind. The 12th place driver can start no lower than 12th while the 13th place driver can start no higher than 13th.

Of course, with real qualifying sessions, the top 12 drivers would likely occupy many of the top 12 positions anyway, so it’s not like these random draws are, for lack of a better word, “unfair”.

But there is an even more accurate way to go about it so that no two drivers have the same chance to occupy any given position, while at the same time, every one of the 36 drivers competing for charter teams has a chance at landing any position (from 1 through 36).

It may seem a bit complicated at first, but it makes sense once you see it in action, and it wouldn’t be hard to execute smoothly with the use of a spreadsheet.

Here’s how that would work.

Line up the 36 charter teams in the owner standings. This is easy, as it is already done as a part of  NASCAR’s current random draw process.

Then assign different likelihoods to each driver to draw for the pole position, and select the polesitter first.

Numbers 1 through 36 total 666 when added together. Right now, Kevin Harvick leads the championship standings with Ryan Blaney in second place and Brad Keselowski in third.

So Harvick would have a 36/666 chance of drawing the pole, Blaney would have a 35/666 chance, Keselowski would have a 34/666 chance, etc., all the way down to the 36th place team, which is currently the #51 Rick Ware Racing team. The driver of that car would have a 1/666 chance of drawing the pole position.

Let’s say Kyle Busch, who currently sits in 11th place in the championship standings, draws the pole position (he would have a 26/666 chance of doing so from 11th). Now there are 35 remaining drivers/teams and 35 remaining positions for which to draw.

Now assign different likelihoods to each driver to draw for the second position (skipping Busch), and select that next.

Numbers 1 through 35 total 630 when added together. Harvick would have a 35/630 chance of drawing second place, Blaney would have a 34/630 chance, Keselowski would have a 33/630 chance, all the way down to the driver of the #51 car, typically Joey Gase, who would have a 1/630 chance.

Let’s say Aric Almirola, who currently sits in ninth place in the championship standings, draws the second position (he would have a 27/630 chance of doing so from ninth). Now there are 34 remaining drivers/teams and 34 remaining positions for which to draw.

Now assign different likelihoods to each driver to draw for the third position (skipping Busch and Almirola), and select that next.

Numbers 1 through 34 total 595 when added together. Harvick would have a 34/595 chance of drawing third place, Blaney would have a 33/595 chance, Keselowski would have a 32/595 chance, all the way down to the #51 driver, who would have a 1/595 chance.

Repeat that process for each position, eliminating drivers as they are selected.

At the end of the day, no method is going to be completely fair until the cars can get back on track to qualify, and here will always be fans who claim it’s rigged whenever their drivers don’t draw the pole position or whenever a driver they dislike happens to start on the front row. The odds of that happening are 100% no matter what happens.

But now we know that cars won’t be back on track to qualify until at least the second weekend in August, and that date could very well be bumped back as well. So should NASCAR consider an alternative draw format?