NASCAR: How to make Daytona ‘not matter’

By Asher Fair | Jul 4, 2020

Daytona, NASCAR, Cup Series (Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images) /

How can NASCAR Cup Series drivers ensure that the 2020 regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway does not matter?

We are officially through half of the post-hiatus portion of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, assuming that the postponed races at Michigan International Speedway and Dover International Speedway do end up being rescheduled for August when both tracks are already slated to host other regular season races.

A total of 11 races have been contested since the Cup Series returned to action at Darlington Raceway on Sunday, May 17, and there are 11 races to go before the playoffs are scheduled to begin at the same venue on Sunday, September 6.

The playoff picture is heating up, and eight drivers have already punched their playoff tickets by winning at least one of the 15 races which have been contested so far this season.

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One of the drivers who is currently in the top 16 in the championship standings but has not yet won a race this season is Stewart-Haas Racing’s Aric Almirola, who has two career victories and hasn’t won since he led just one lap in October of 2018 at Talladega Superspeedway.

Following his impressive third place finish in Saturday’s race at Pocono Raceway in which he led more laps than anybody else in the field after starting from the pole position, Almirola discussed that his regular season goal is not necessarily to win, but to clinch a playoff spot before the regular season finale.

That will be particularly important this season since the traditional July 4th weekend race at Daytona International Speedway was moved to Saturday, August 29 to close out the 26-race regular season, and Daytona International Speedway is known for producing “wild card” races that can easily derail the contenders while underdogs find themselves in victory lane.

“For me one of the things I told [crew chief Mike Bugarewicz] right from the very beginning of the season is my goal is for Daytona to not matter,” said Almirola. “I want to go to Daytona and not be in a pressure situation where you got to out-point somebody or you got to just be careful or any of those things. My goal is to win so that Daytona won’t matter and we’ll be locked in the Playoffs. If we don’t win, to have a big enough points gap that Daytona won’t matter.”

So how can Almriola — or anybody for that matter — make Daytona “not matter”?

Given the unforgiving nature of superspeedway racing, that’s a good question. But aside of the obvious answer of simply winning a race before then, it can be done.

The playoff cut line is always going to be between driver 16 and driver 17. Whether those two drivers are 16th and 17th place in points is the question; it depends on whether or not there are any upset race winners from outside of the top 16 up until the regular season finale.

So far this season, the eight winners are all in the top eight in the championship standings, so the cut line currently sits between the 16th and 17th place drivers.

At most, the regular season finale will produce one new winner. If that winner comes from outside the top 16 in points, the playoff cut line moves to between the drivers who sit in 15th and 16th place in the championship standings.

Without winning, the highest amount of points a driver can score in a race is 55. That total includes 10 points for winning stage one, 10 for winning stage two and 35 for a second place finish. The lowest amount is one, which is earned for a finish of 36th place or worst.

So the key is to be 54 points ahead of where the playoff cut line could be after the regular season finale if an upset winner emerges, not where it is entering that race.

Let’s say Almirola enters the season finale 85 points above the cut line. But he may not be safe simply because he is above that 54-point threshold. If the 16th place driver is 50 points above it, passes Almirola in points and an upset winner emerges, Almirola could realistically fall out of the playoff picture.

But if the 16th place driver is just 25 points above the playoff cut line (60 points behind Almirola) and a new winner emerges, there is no mathematical way for Almirola to fall below the cut line, since he could not possibly end up lower than 16 other drivers in that scenario.

Using the current playoff picture through 15 races, here is an example.

Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmie Johnson is 63 points above the playoff cut line while Stewart-Haas Racing’s Clint Bowyer is 60 points above it and Wood Brothers Racing’s Matt DiBenedetto is 57 points above it.

However, none of those three drivers would be safe despite being above that 54-point threshold. The 16th place driver is Joe Gibbs Racing’s Erik Jones, and Jones is 14 points above the cut line.

So if a driver such as 23rd place Michael McDowell of Front Row Motorsports wins the regular season finale and gets himself into the playoffs via that win, Jones could potentially outscore Johnson by more than 49 points, Bowyer by more than 46 points and/or DiBenedetto by more than 43 points to jump ahead of them and knock them out of the playoffs.

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With how close some of the playoff cut line battles have been in recent years and with how this year’s playoff picture is shaping up, these are the kinds of things which non-winning teams will need to constantly be monitoring especially with the regular season finale at such a “wild card” race track where literally anybody can emerge victorious to lock up an upset playoff berth.

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