NASCAR: Justin Allgaier’s start a sign of things to come?

Justin Allgaier’s replacement start for Jimmie Johnson in Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race could simply be a replacement start, or it could lead to the biggest opportunity of his career.

After 663 consecutive NASCAR Cup Series starts since becoming the full-time driver of the #48 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports, seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson is set to sit out this afternoon’s Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

The 44-year-old El Cajon, California native tested positive for COVID-19 and will not be allowed to return until he tests negative twice, with those two negative tests coming at least 24 hours apart from one another.

Set to replace him behind the wheel of the #48 Chevrolet for this 160-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) oval in Speedway, Indiana is JR Motorsports Xfinity Series driver Justin Allgaier.

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Allgaier made his most recent Cup Series start in 2016 as the replacement for Michael Annett, now one of his JR Motorsports teammates, at HScott Motorsports at Bristol Motor Speedway. He had competed full-time for the team in 2014 and 2015.

With all due respect to the 34-year-old Spaulding, Illinois native, the hope is that this will be his only start behind the wheel of the #48 Chevrolet this year and that Johnson will be back for next Sunday’s race at Kentucky Speedway. And the priority is certainly the health and well-being of Jimmie and his wife, Chandra, who tested positive before Jimmie was even tested.

Fortunately, Jimmie has been asymptomatic the whole time while Chandra has been recovering from the symptoms she suffered.

But there is still an undeniable racing element to this whole situation, and that involves Allgaier being set to compete in the most important race of his NASCAR career.

Why? It is well-documented that the #48 Chevrolet still needs a new driver for next year. Amid speculation of a return next year, Johnson has confirmed on multiple occasions that despite how this season has gone, he will not be back full-time in 2021.

Several names have been tossed around since Johnson announced his impending retirement last November, but seven and a half months later, there is still no clear favorite to replace him.

And now Allgaier has an unexpected chance to “audition” for that role, an opportunity that no other driver has. Could Hendrick Motorsports next new driver be Allgaier?

Allgaier’s name hasn’t been one that has been regularly linked to Johnson’s seat, but at the very least, he is in the running. Having a chance to compete against the sport’s best this afternoon can only help boost his case by allowing him to stand out after being thrown to the wolves as the unexpected replacement driver for a seven-time champion.

It is worth noting that he had already been the designated reserve driver for Hendrick Motorsports. He is no stranger to the organization, and there was no hesitation to put him behind the wheel of Johnson’s Camaro ZL1 1LE once Johnson tested positive for COVID-19.

If Rick Hendrick doesn’t end up signing 2012 champion Brad Keselowski, the hottest remaining free agent on the market, away from Team Penske for next year, Allgaier is arguably the top option as far as veteran drivers are concerned.

While Allgaier’s Cup Series experience is limited to just two full seasons driving for a backmarker team, he has competed full-time in NASCAR for 12 consecutive seasons going back to 2009, including 10 Xfinity Series seasons.

He is in his fifth season driving for the Hendrick-co-owned JR Motorsports and qualified for the Championship 4 in three of his first four seasons. The one season in which he failed to advance to the championship round was the 2018 campaign, and that was ironically a breakout campaign for him, as he won a career-high five races.

In nine seasons of Xfinity Series competition, he has never finished outside of the top seven in the championship standings, and ironically, it was his breakout season that resulted in his career-worst seventh place result, simply because of how things played out late in the playoffs. He has never been anything but competitive.

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Erik Jones, Go Fas Racing’s Corey LaJoie and Wood Brothers Racing’s Matt DiBenedetto are also seen as potential candidates to replace Johnson, among the current Cup Series field.

But none of them are older than 28, and Hendrick Motorsports, a team that recently consisted of Johnson and the now-retired Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne, are currently without a driver older than 27 under contract for next year. Alex Bowman is 27, Chase Elliott is 24 and William Byron is 22.

There is also no guarantee that any of those other pending free agents will be available, and given the fact that Allgaier has been with the Hendrick-associated JR Motorsports team since 2016 and is a veteran who has run well for more than a decade at NASCAR’s second highest level, he could be a perfect fit for the team, at least on a one-year trial basis.

Another driver in the mix appears to be JR Motorsports’ Noah Gragson, but at 22 years old and only in his second Xfinity Series season, it may be a bit too soon to promote him to the Cup Series.

Additionally, by promoting an older driver in Allgaier, this would give Hendrick the flexibility to retain Gragson at the Xfinity level and potentially keep him in line for a seat a few years down the road.

But this whole possibility starts this afternoon in the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400, which is set to be broadcast live on NBC beginning at 4:00 p.m. ET. While Johnson had drawn the fourth starting position for this race, Allgaier is set to drop to the rear before the start due to the driver change behind the wheel of the #48 Chevrolet. Where will he end up in his first race driving for Hendrick Motorsports, and could this be a sign of things to come for next year?