NASCAR: Things are getting tight at the playoff bubble

Only the month of August remains before the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. With seven races remaining, things are getting tight at the bubble.

Following two consecutive upset victories by Stewart-Haas Racing rookie Cole Custer and Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon at Kentucky Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway, respectively, things stabilized somewhat at Kansas Speedway, where Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin took his series-best fifth checkered flag of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season.

However, things at the playoff cut line only got tighter following the 26-race regular season’s 19th race.

With just seven races remaining in the regular season, all in August in what is slated to be the busiest month of top-level Cup Series action since August of 1971, who is sitting pretty and who will need things to go their way to lock up a chance to compete for a championship in the four-round, 10-race playoffs?

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One of the reasons why things got interesting at Kansas Speedway is because Dillon wrecked. As a result, he dropped from 14th to 17th place in the championship standings.

Because the driver of the #3 Chevrolet would now be below the playoff cut line on points, the cut line is now between the drivers who sit in 14th and 15th place in points as opposed to between the 15th and 16th place drivers. The playoff cut line had already been bumped up from between the 16th and 17th place drivers to the between the 15th and 16th place drivers because of Custer’s win, as Custer is well outside of the top 16 in points in a 19th place tie.

Through 19 races of the season, 10 drivers have won at least one race. The top seven drivers in points have each notched at least one win, as have Dillon and Custer. The other winner is Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman, who sits in 11th place in the championship standings.

As a result, there are currently six drivers (from eighth to 14th place in points, excluding Bowman), who are above the playoff cut line based on their point totals. The top three of these six drivers are all at least 119 points ahead and appear to be pretty safe, even in the event of multiple upset winners throughout the remainder of the regular season.

However, the battle behind them is intense, as there are six drivers who sit within just 50 points of one another. To put that into perspective, a total of 55 points are available in each race for non-winners.

Three of those six drivers are above the playoff cut line while three of them are below it. Four of these six drivers are separated by just 18 points, and just one of those four drivers is above the playoff cut line.

Here is how things look at the bubble right now.

NOTE: This playoff picture includes only the drivers who are above the playoff cut line without a win and those who are less than 100 points behind it.

Playoff Rank (Points Rank) – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
11th (8th) – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 576 (+134)
12th (9th) – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 562 (+120)
13th (10th) – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 561 (+119)
14th (12th) – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 484 (+42)
15th (13th) – Matt DiBenedetto, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 477 (+35)
16th (14th) – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 452 (+10)
————————–PLAYOFF CUT LINE————————–
17th (15th) – Tyler Reddick, #8, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 442 (-10)
18th (16th) – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 440 (-12)
19th (18th) – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 434 (-18)

One thing to consider is that while it will be nearly impossible for anybody lower than Johnson to qualify for the playoffs on points, more upset winners are not out of the question.

Kentucky Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway, two 1.5-mile tracks, aren’t typically the kind of tracks fans would expect to produce upset winners, yet both did so in July.

But even if the intermediate tracks don’t manage to produce any upset winners in August, there are still two tracks that many consider to be wild card tracks.

Those two tracks are the Daytona International Speedway road course, which is slated to host its first ever Cup Series race, and of course, the Daytona International Speedway oval, which is slated to host the regular season finale for the first time ever.

With how tight things already are, you can bet that Clint Bowyer, Matt DiBenedetto, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Erik Jones and Jimmie Johnson are hoping we don’t see any more upset winners like we did in July.

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The first race of a packed August is the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301, which is scheduled to take place this afternoon. This race is set to be broadcast live on NBC Sports Network from New Hampshire Motor Speedway beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET.

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