NASCAR: The major implications of Brad Keselowski’s decision

Brad Keselowski’s recent decision as to which team he’ll drive for in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season has major implications.

Brad Keselowski has spent the entirety of his career as a full-time NASCAR Cup Series driver competing at Team Penske. He began competing full-time back in 2010 and signed a three-year contract extension in July of 2017.

As a result, the 2012 champion had been considered one of the top pending free agents for the 2021 season, and there had been mounting speculation that he would not re-sign with Roger Penske’s organization.

The 36-year-old Rochester Hills, Michigan native was the only one of the three Team Penske drivers who was not under contract for 2021 and beyond. Joey Logano signed an extension through the 2023 season back in February of 2017, and Ryan Blaney signed a multi-year extension in March of this year.

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Keselowski confirmed that he would be willing to listen to teams that “dial in“, and it is highly likely that multiple teams had inquired about him.

But now it has been confirmed that he has re-signed with the team on an extension that runs through at least the 2021 season. What are the implications of Keselowski’s decision?

Keselowski had been considered one of the favorites to replace the retiring Jimmie Johnson at Hendrick Motorsports. So now all eyes will shift to Hendrick Motorsports.

A few months ago, Keselowski’s extension would have shifted eyes to Kyle Larson, who had been driving for Chip Ganassi Racing. But Larson, who was considered another candidate to replace the seven-time champion, was fired after using a racial slur. Even if he returns to NASCAR next year, it likely won’t be with Hendrick Motorsports or Chip Ganassi Racing.

If Larson does return, it would likely be with Stewart-Haas Racing. This would set of its own chain reaction since two of their four drivers, Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer, are not under contract for 2021. Neither driver has won a race since 2018, and one of them would have to be cut. Meanwhile, this would leave Hendrick Motorsports still seeking a replacement.

There are a number of other notable pending free agents at some of the smaller teams as well, including Matt DiBenedetto at the Team Penske-affiliated Wood Brothers Racing and Corey LaJoie at the Stewart-Haas Racing-affiliated Go Fas Racing, and this could turn the focus to them to potentially replace Johnson.

Erik Jones, the lone pending free agent at Joe Gibbs Racing, could enter the mix too, but that probably wouldn’t happen until later in the year, if at all. Joe Gibbs Racing only extended his contract for the 2020 season in September of last year.

Christopher Bell drives for the Joe Gibbs Racing-affiliated Leavine Family Racing. Should Leavine Family Racing sell the team, as has been speculated, either Jones or Bell will be out not only from the Gibbs organization but from Toyota, assuming Joe Gibbs Racing don’t form another technical alliance and manage to retain the odd man out.

Either driver could move to Hendrick Motorsports or perhaps to Stewart-Haas Racing, where Stewart-Haas Racing Xfinity Series driver Chase Briscoe will also be considered.

But if none of these drivers end up replacing Johnson, the JR Motorsports Xfinity Series team, which is where William Byron and Chase Elliott competed full-time and won championships before they were promoted to Hendrick Motorsports, could provide another driver for Hendrick’s team as well. Youngster Noah Gragson and veteran Justin Allgaier would be well-positioned for promotions.

Additionally, even with Keselowski set to return to Team Penske, they are still somewhat in the spotlight, given their technical alliance with Wood Brothers Racing and their Xfinity Series situation.

DiBenedetto could stick around, or he could also end up leaving to replace Johnson. That would open up the door for Xfinity Series driver Austin Cindric, whose father Tim is Team Penske’s president.

This would put him in a better position for a future move to the Team Penske Cup Series team — especially since Keselowski’s contract hasn’t been confirmed beyond 2021.

Let’s also not forget that (a) Hendrick Motorsports could technically operate with only three cars next year and (b) Team Penske could technically add a fourth car since they aren’t at capacity.

Neither scenario is likely, but Keselowski staying put for a 12th season with Team Penske opens the door for both.

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Brad Keselowski’s decision to re-sign with Team Penske will have major implications throughout the rest of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series driver lineup. Which pending free agents will move to which organizations?

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