NASCAR: How to calculate starting lineups using the new formula

By Asher Fair | Aug 10, 2020

NASCAR, Cup Series (Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images) /

NASCAR has introduced a new formula to determine starting lineups for the remainder of the 2020 season, eliminating the need for random draws. Here is how to calculate future lineups.

The random draw for the first of two races of the NASCAR Cup Series doubleheader at Michigan International Speedway ended up being the 13th and final draw of the 2020 season, as the sport has introduced a new formula to determine starting lineups moving forward that takes good fortune out of the equation.

This new formula is a simple one that includes three factors: finish in the previous race, position in the owner standings, and fastest lap rank in the previous races.

These three factors are each weighted differently, with finish in the previous race being the most valuable at 50%, position in the owner standings being valued at 35% and fastest lap rank in the previous race being the least valuable at 15%.

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Because each of these factors is based on where each driver ranks in relation to the rest of the field, calculating the starting lineups is quite simple moving forward with 14 races left on this year’s schedule.

Let’s use two drivers as a brief example.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick won the previous race at Michigan International Speedway over Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin in second place. Harvick’s #4 Ford leads the owner standings while Hamlin’s #11 Toyota sits in third. Hamlin recorded the race’s fastest lap, while Harvick’s fastest lap ranked second to Hamlin’s.

For Harvick, his ranks are first (1), first (1) and second (2) in finish in the previous race (x), position in the owner standings (y), and fastest lap rank in the previous race (z), respectively. Hamlin’s ranks are second (2), third (3) and first (1).

Now multiply each rank by its corresponding weight using the following equation: 0.50x+0.35y+0.15z.

Harvick’s equation comes out to (0.50*1)+(0.35*1)+(0.15*2) while Hamlin’s comes out to (0.50*2)+(0.35*3)+(0.15*1).

Because we are looking at ranks, the lower result is the superior one. Harvick’s result is 1.15 while Hamlin’s is 2.25, so Harvick is slated to start ahead of Hamlin.

In the event of a tiebreaker, the driver who ranks higher in owner standings wins.

These drivers are slated to share the front row in the next race at the Daytona International Speedway road course, as their two values are the lowest of any drivers.

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But this can change from race to race; just look at Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney. His #12 Ford sits in fourth place in the owner standings, but he is only slated to start in 24th because he crashed out of the most recent race and was hit with a disappointing 38th place finish as a result of it.

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