NASCAR: Upset winners can make things very complicated

Protecting against the threat of upset winners when it comes to qualifying for the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs could get complicated.

There are just three races remaining on the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series schedule, and there are 10 drivers who have already solidified their playoff berths via wins, leaving six remaining open spots for between zero and three new winners and between three and six drivers on points.

The three races remaining on the schedule are scheduled to take place at Dover International Speedway (twice) and Daytona International Speedway, and we could very well see upset winners emerge at these tracks, given the drivers who have recently been strong there.

The current playoff picture features the playoff cut line between the 14th and 15th place drivers in points, given that two drivers outside of the top 16 in points have locked themselves into the postseason via wins.

It features six drivers who are all at least 25 points above the playoff cut line, including three who are at least 100 points above it.

Here is the playoff picture through 23 of the 26 regular season races, featuring only the drivers who are above the cut line on points and drivers who can still qualify on points (12th place Alex Bowman is omitted since he has already won a race and is thus locked into the playoffs).

Points Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
8th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 682 (+130)
9th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 673 (+121)
10th – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 652 (+100)
11th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 618 (+66)
13th – Matt DiBenedetto, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 596 (+44)
14th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 577 (+25)
——————PLAYOFF CUT LINE——————
15th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 552 (-25)
16th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 542 (-35)
17th – Tyler Reddick, #8, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 520 (-57)

However, the threat of upset winners with three races remaining means that zero of these drivers are truly safe.

Should the final three races of the regular season see three winners from below the current position of the playoff cut line (14th place), here is how the playoff picture would work (given current point totals).

Points Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
8th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 682 (+64)
9th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 673 (+55)
10th – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 652 (+34)
——————PLAYOFF CUT LINE——————
11th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 618 (-34)
13th – Matt DiBenedetto, #21, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford: 596 (-56)
14th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 577 (-75)
15th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 552 (-100)
16th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 542 (-110)
17th – Tyler Reddick, #8, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet: 520 (-132)

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Instead of being 130 points ahead, Aric Almirola would be only 64 points ahead, and instead of being three spots above the bubble and 100 points ahead, Kyle Busch would be the man right above the cut line and only 34 points ahead.

So how can drivers protect against this threat?

Almirola made the remark several weeks ago that he wants the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway to “not matter” in terms of his playoff chances, whether he enters it as a winner or not.

Without winning, a driver can make up a maximum of 54 points on another driver in a given race. A finish of 36th place or worse nets one point, and a driver can score a maximum 55 points without taking the checkered flag (stage one win is 10 points, stage two win is 10 points, second place finish is 35 points).

As a result, the key is to enter the regular season finale 54 points above where the playoff cut line could be after the race. This comes out to 108 points with two races remaining and 162 points with three races remaining.

So if Almirola were to enter the regular season finale 80 points above the cut line in the 15th place spot and Busch were to enter it 79 points above the cut line in the 16th and final spot, Almirola wouldn’t be safe.

Why? Because with an upset winner, the cut line could jump up a spot, meaning he would only really be one point above Busch for the final playoff position, and one point is easily able to be made up in a single race.

So Almirola could go from 80 points ahead the playoff cut line to below it in just one race, even if Busch only beats him by two points.

Right now, Almirola is 64 points above where the playoff cut line could be in a worst-case upset winner scenario, which is above the 54-point threshold. However, he still isn’t safe, as there are still three races left, not just one.

To be safe right now, he would need to be 162 points ahead of that mark, which would mean that he would need to be 228 total points above the actual cut line right now to have secured himself a playoff spot.

That would put him at 780 points and fourth place in the standings. If you take away wins from the top drivers, only three drivers would be locked in on points: Kevin Harvick (939), Denny Hamlin (821) and Brad Keselowski (803).

While Almirola does appear pretty comfortable right now and there are certainly no guarantees that we will see any upset winners, much less three in three races, things have the potential to get really complicated if drivers from below the playoff cut line end up winning these final three regular season races.

Tune in to NBC Sports Network at 4:00 p.m. ET for the two races at Dover International Speedway this Saturday, August 22 and Sunday, August 23, and tune in to NBC at 7:30 p.m. ET for the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway on Saturday, August 29.