NASCAR: The effect of Chase Elliott’s overturned penalty

Chase Elliott was moved from sixth to 22nd to fifth place on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway. Here’s how that impacts the NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture.

Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott crossed the finish line in sixth place at Talladega Superspeedway in Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series round of 12 playoff race. But he was officially scored in 22nd.

Immediately after the race, NASCAR ruled that Elliott had gone below the double yellow line to make a pass in the 200th and final lap around the four-turn, 2.66-mile (4.281-kilometer) high-banked oval in Lincoln, Alabama.

As a result, his race finish scored him 15 points instead of 31. Having scored 12 stage points, he scored 27 points throughout the entire race instead of 43.

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But about an hour later, NASCAR rescinded that penalty and instead penalized Roush Fenway Racing’s Chris Buescher for forcing the #9 Chevrolet below the double yellow line.

Because Wood Brothers Racing’s Matt DiBenedetto, who originally finished in second place, was issued a similar penalty and dropped to 21st, Elliott was officially scored in fifth instead of his original sixth. So he came away with 32 points for his finish and 44 throughout the entire race.

How did that affect the playoff picture?

It really didn’t change much outside of his own outlook as the series heads to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval for the third and final race of the round of 12.

Had the penalty not been rescinded, he would have been 27 points above the round of 8 cut line.

Position – Driver: Points (Ahead/Behind)
1st – Denny Hamlin: CLINCHED
2nd – Kurt Busch: CLINCHED
3rd – Kevin Harvick: 3121 (+68)
4th – Brad Keselowski: 3094 (+41)
5th – Martin Truex Jr.: 3085 (+32)
6th – Chase Elliott: 3080 (+27)
7th – Alex Bowman: 3075 (+22)
8th – Joey Logano: 3074 (+21)
————ROUND OF 8 CUT LINE————
9th – Kyle Busch: 3053 (-21)
9th – Austin Dillon: 3053 (-21)
11th – Clint Bowyer: 3036 (-38)
12th – Aric Almirola: 3026 (-48)

Instead, he sits 44 points ahead of it.

Position – Driver: Points (Ahead/Behind)
1st – Denny Hamlin: CLINCHED
2nd – Kurt Busch: CLINCHED
3rd – Kevin Harvick: 3121 (+68)
4th – Chase Elliott: 3097 (+44)
5th – Brad Keselowski: 3094 (+41)
6th – Martin Truex Jr.: 3085 (+32)
7th – Alex Bowman: 3075 (+22)
8th – Joey Logano: 3074 (+21)
————ROUND OF 8 CUT LINE————
9th – Kyle Busch: 3053 (-21)
9th – Austin Dillon: 3053 (-21)
11th – Clint Bowyer: 3036 (-38)
12th – Aric Almirola: 3026 (-48)

It may not seem like a huge change, and it may not end up making a difference, especially if Elliott wins on Sunday like he did last year at the 17-turn, 2.28-mile (3.669-kilometer) roval in Concord, North Carolina to secure his fourth straight road course victory.

But the key thing here has to do with the potential for upset winners. Should a winner from ninth through 12th place emerge, the round of 8 cut line would effectively move up by one position from between the eighth and ninth place drivers to between the seventh and eighth place drivers.

In fact, it has technically has already done so since Kurt Busch, who ranks 10th in points, is locked into the round of 8. So really Joey Logano currently sits in seventh in points, not eighth, while Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon, despite being below the round of 8 cut line, are tied for eighth, not ninth.

If not for his penalty being rescinded, Elliott would have been just six points above the eighth place spot with just one driver in between. Instead, he is 23 points ahead with three drivers in between.

Of course, with a maximum of 55 points available for non-winners in each race (10 for stage one win, 10 for stage two win and 35 for second place race finish), 23 points is by no means a safe gap.

But multiple drivers will need to surpass his point total even if an upset occurs in order for him to fall outside of the eight transfer spots, and it makes it a lot tougher for the drivers who are already on the outside looking in to make him one of the drivers whom they pass in points in order to lock into the next round without winning.

After all, we won’t get more than one winner in the round of 12 finale, and even in the event of an upset winner, any of the other ninth through 12th place drivers who advance to the round of 8 will have to do so on points.

Tune in to NBC at 2:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 11 for the live broadcast of the 2020 Bank of America Roval 400 from the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval to see which six drivers will join Denny Hamlin and Kurt Busch in the round of 8.