NASCAR: Only one driver in a true must-win situation at Martinsville
By Asher Fair
Only one NASCAR Cup Series driver is technically in a must-win situation at Martinsville Speedway to close out the round of 8 of the playoffs.
The term “must-win” is floated around quite often every year when the NASCAR Cup Series approaches the closing race of a given playoff round, and that is no different year.
Following the second of three races in the round of 8 of the playoffs at Texas Motor Speedway, only one driver, Team Penske’s Joey Logano, has locked himself into the Championship 4 thanks to his win at Kansas Speedway.
The three other drivers currently above the Championship 4 cut line are all at least 25 points ahead of it, meaning that none of the four drivers below it are within 24 points of it.
Here is a current playoff picture.
Rank – Driver: Points (+/- cut line)
1st – Joey Logano: 4094 (CLINCHED)
2nd – Kevin Harvick: 4137 (+42)
3rd – Denny Hamlin: 4122 (+27)
4th – Brad Keselowski: 4120 (+25)
————CHAMPIONSHIP 4 CUT LINE————
5th – Alex Bowman: 4095 (-25)
5th – Chase Elliott: 4095 (-25)
7th – Martin Truex Jr.: 4084 (-36)
8th – Kurt Busch: 4039 (-81)
As a result, they are supposedly facing “must-win” situations in the round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway this afternoon.
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However, that is really only the case for one of them, considering the fact that 54 points can be made up on any given driver in any given race even without winning.
Stage one wins are worth 10 points, stage two wins are worth 10 points, second place finishes are worth 35 points and finishes of 36th or worse are worth one point.
So the only driver truly in a “must-win” situation is Kurt Busch, as he sits 81 points below the Championship 4 cut line heading into the final race of the third round and thus has no way into the next round on points.
Take a look at why not even Martin Truex Jr., who sits in seventh place in the standings ahead of only Busch, is in a must-win situation.
In fact, he could not only hop into the top four without winning; he could potentially end up with more points than anybody else — without winning!
He sits 53 points behind Kevin Harvick, 38 points behind Denny Hamin, 36 points behind Brad Keselowski and 11 points behind both Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott.
All of those deficits can be made up in a single race.
Sure, none of them are easy to overcome, but it is simply inaccurate to say that Truex, or anybody other than Busch, absolutely must win to advance.
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The Xfinity 500 is scheduled to conclude the round of 8 this afternoon, and NBC is set to broadcast the race live from Martinsville Speedway beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET.