NASCAR: Playoff elimination at Martinsville – who’s in, who’s out?
By Asher Fair
The third elimination race of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is upon us at Martinsville Speedway. Who is in and who is out?
The third and final race of the third of four rounds of the 10-race 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, the Xfinity 500, is scheduled to take place this afternoon at Martinsville Speedway.
After this race, four of the remaining eight playoff drivers will be eliminated from championship contention.
The other four will move on to compete in the winner-take-all Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway.
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Just one driver, Team Penske’s Joey Logano, has already secured his spot in the Championship 4.
Logano won the round of 8 opener at Kansas Speedway, but Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch, who was eliminated after the round of 12, won Wednesday evening’s race at Texas Motor Speedway, thus blocking anybody else from locking into the Championship 4.
Here is a look at how the other seven remaining round of 8 drivers stack up heading into this afternoon’s 500-lap race around the the four-turn, 0.526-mile (0.847-kilometer) oval in Ridgeway, Virginia.
Position – Driver: Points (Ahead/Behind)
2nd – Kevin Harvick: 4137 (+42)
3rd – Denny Hamlin: 4122 (+27)
4th – Brad Keselowski: 4120 (+25)
————CHAMPIONSHIP 4 CUT LINE————
5th – Alex Bowman: 4095 (-25)
5th – Chase Elliott: 4095 (-25)
7th – Martin Truex Jr.: 4084 (-36)
8th – Kurt Busch: 4039 (-81)
Every non-winner in the field has the opportunity to make up a maximum of 54 points over a given competitor in an individual race, given that each driver who competes is guaranteed to score at least one point and a maximum of 55 points can be scored via a second place finish (10 points for winning stage one, 10 points for winning stage two and 35 points for finishing the race in second).
Any driver winning automatically moves him to the Championship 4, but a driver from below the Championship 4 cut line winning this afternoon’s race would effectively move that cut line up by one spot, which would cause in a shift of each driver’s gap to safety.
As an example, Denny Hamlin is 27 points ahead of the current Championship 4 cut line, but he is only two points ahead of where it could be should an upset winner emerge this afternoon.
Here is how that scenario looks.
Position – Driver: Points (Ahead/Behind)
2nd – Bowman/Elliott/Truex Jr./Busch (NEW WINNER)
3rd – Kevin Harvick: 4137 (+17)
4th – Denny Hamlin: 4122 (+2)
————CHAMPIONSHIP 4 CUT LINE————
5th – Brad Keselowski: 4120 (-2)
Under the assumption that each individual driver isn’t the NEW WINNER…
Alex Bowman: 4095 (-27)
Chase Elliott: 4095 (-27)
Martin Truex Jr.: 4084 (-38)
Kurt Busch: 4039 (-83)
Kurt Busch is the only driver who is truly in a must-win situation heading into Martinsville Speedway.
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Which three drivers will join Joey Logano in the round of 8? Tune in to NBC at 2:00 p.m. ET this afternoon for the live broadcast of the 2020 Xfinity 500 from Martinsville Speedway.