NASCAR: Who would be 2020 champion without playoffs?

What would the final 2020 NASCAR Cup Series championship standings have looked out without playoffs, assuming all other things stayed constant?

Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott was crowned 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion on Sunday, November 8 at Phoenix Raceway, wrapping up the seventh consecutive season of the current playoff format and the 17th consecutive season for which NASCAR has utilized some kind of playoff format for its highest level of competition.

Based on the nature of the playoff format, Elliott won the championship with 5,040 points. However, that point total does not reflect the exact number of points he accrued throughout the year.

After the regular season, the 16 playoff drivers have their point totals reset to 2,000, plus the playoff points they have accrued throughout the 26-race regular season by winning races (five playoff points), winning stages (one) and/or finishing the regular season in the top 10 in points (between one and 15).

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After the three-race round of 16, the 12 remaining playoff drivers have their point totals reset to 3,000, plus the playoff points they have accrued through the season’s first 29 races, while the four drivers who fail to advance from the round of 16 to the round of 12 have their point totals stay as they are (the 2,000+ total).

Following the three-race round of 12, the eight remaining playoff drivers have their point totals reset to 4,000, plus the playoffs points they have accrued through the season’s first 32 races, while the four drivers who fail to advance from the round of 12 to the round of 8 have their point totals reset to their starting playoff total (the 2,000+ amount), plus the additional points they have accrued through the first six races of the playoffs.

Finally, following the three-round round of 8, the four remaining playoff drivers have their point totals reset to 5,000. None of them are eligible to score stage points in the Championship 4, and the highest finisher, among those four drivers, in the season finale is crowned champion.

The four drivers who fail to advance from the round of 8 to the Championship 4 have their point totals reset to their starting playoff total (the 2,000+ amount), plus the additional points they have accrued through the first nine races of the playoffs.

Naturally, under different playoff/non-playoff formats, there are other things to consider regarding how each driver races, such as a driver’s willingness to take a chance to win a race which he wouldn’t otherwise take in favor of settling for a solid points haul. But for the sake of this article, we are going to focus only on what we know: the number of points scored in 2020.

So with all other things being equal, who would have topped the series based on points alone this year?

Here is what the final 2020 NASCAR Cup Series championship standings would have looked like based on points alone, using the current points format.

NOTE: Stage points for the Championship 4 drivers, which aren’t included in the actual championship standings since they are not awarded, are included in this list.

Rank – Driver: Points (Behind)
1st – Kevin Harvick: 1401 (0)
2nd – Denny Hamlin: 1310 (-91)
3rd – Chase Elliott: 1265 (-136)
4th – Brad Keselowski: 1264 (-137)
5th – Joey Logano: 1251 (-150)
6th – Martin Truex Jr.: 1211 (-190)
7th – Ryan Blaney: 1181 (-220)
8th – Kyle Busch: 1061 (-340)
9th – Alex Bowman: 1054 (-347)
10th – Kurt Busch: 991 (-410)
11th – Aric Almirola: 989 (-412)
12th – Clint Bowyer: 961 (-440)
13th – William Byron: 916 (-485)
14th – Matt DiBenedetto: 915 (-486)
15th – Erik Jones: 873 (-528)
16th – Austin Dillon: 845 (-556)
17th – Jimmie Johnson: 836 (-565)
18th – Tyler Reddick: 780 (-621)
19th – Christopher Bell: 678 (-723)
20th – Cole Custer: 673 (-728)
21st – Chris Buescher: 645 (-756)
22nd – Bubba Wallace: 597 (-804)
23rd – Michael McDowell: 588 (-813)
24th – Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: 584 (-817)
25th – Ryan Newman: 566 (-835)
26th – Ty Dillon: 556 (-845)
27th – John Hunter Nemechek: 534 (-867)
28th – Matt Kenseth: 521 (-880)
29th – Ryan Preece: 477 (-924)
30th – Corey LaJoie: 408 (-993)
31st – Daniel Suarez: 365 (-1036)
32nd – Brennan Poole: 269 (-1132)
33rd – Quin Houff: 214 (-1187)

Since the playoffs began in 2004, seven drivers who won the actual championship finished on top of the true points category. This was not the case this year, and it has only been the case twice in the seven seasons for which a Championship 4 has been used.

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Will it be the case in 2021? The 2021 season is scheduled to get underway on Sunday, February 14 with the 63rd annual Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway.

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