NASCAR: Will 23XI Racing exceed 2021 expectations?

Bubba Wallace is set to drive the #23 Toyota for 23XI Racing in 2021, but just how competitive will the team be in their first NASCAR Cup Series season?

Back in September, it was announced that NBA legend Michael Jordan and NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin would team up to run a new Cup Series team. That team would later be announced as 23XI Racing with Bubba Wallace as the driver of the #23 Toyota.

There is an understandable amount of hype surrounding the team going into 2021. Obviously, Jordon is a global icon and one of the most recognizable names in all of sports.

Add that element to Wallace, who became one of the most popular drivers in 2020, and you’ve got high expectations.

But should people expect so much from a team in their first NASCAR Cup Series season?

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The team will have a technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing, the team for which Hamlin has driven since 2005. We’ve seen multiple teams thrive in partnerships with Joe Gibbs Racing over the past few years.

Furniture Row Racing remain the biggest success story, as they won a championship in 2017 with Martin Truex Jr. as their driver and finished runner-up with Truex in 2018. The team had an alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing for three seasons before they were forced to shut down after 2018.

Leavine Family Racing had a technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing for the past two seasons with two different drivers. Matt DiBenedetto drove the #95 Toyota in 2019 before Christopher Bell took over in 2020.

These two drivers recorded similar statistics. DiBenedetto recorded three top five finishes, seven top 10 finishes, an average finish of 18.3 and a 22nd place finish in the championship standings.

Bell recorded two top five finishes and matched DiBenedetto’s seven top 10 finishes. He finished in 20th place in the standings with an average finish of 20.2. It should be noted that the 2020 season was Bell’s rookie year in the Cup Series while the 2019 season was DiBenedetto’s fifth.

It’s hard to judge whether this technical alliance truly raised the level of Leavine Family Racing in a significant manner because they had only ever had one driver run the full season before 2019.

Michael McDowell finished in 26th place in the championship standings in 2017. His highest finish in a non-superspeedway race behind the wheel of the #95 Chevrolet was 13th at Watkins Glen International. Kasey Kahne was slated to run the whole 2018 season, but his season ended after 25 of 36 races due to hydrations issues. He sat in 27th in the standings at the time.

Furniture Row Racing had some success before their technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing. Kurt Busch recorded 11 top five finishes and finished in 10th place in the championship standings in 2014. Truex had one win and qualified for the Championship 4 in 2015.

While Furniture Row Racing set the bar high with their performance, I think 23XI Racing will perform similarly to Leavine Family Racing. We cannot forget that Furniture Row Racing had two future Hall of Famers driving their cars in 2014 and 2015 and performed at a high level even before forming their technical alliance.

Wallace has steadily improved in his three years with Richard Petty Motorsports, going from finishes of 28th place in the championship standings in 2018 and 2019 to 22nd in 2020. That improvement is impressive considering Richard Petty Motorsports equipment seems to be worse than that of Leavine Family Racing.

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I think there is potential for 23XI Racing to challenge for a win, especially at the superspeedways, but a lack of consistency will keep them on the outside of the playoff picture. I expect them to perform better late in the season and in 2022 as they get the growing pains out of the way.

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