Formula 1: The overlooked aspect of the Mercedes situation

Sure, driving for Mercedes is a huge deal for George Russell’s Formula 1 career. But Russell’s deal may be even bigger for Valtteri Bottas.

With seven-time Formula 1 world champion Lewis Hamilton having tested positive for COVID-19 after dominating last Sunday’s Bahrain Grand Prix at Bahrain International Circuit, he was ruled out for this Sunday’s Sakhir Grand Prix at the outer layout of the same venue.

This marks the first time he will miss a race since making his Formula 1 debut in 2007, ending a record-breaking streak of 265 consecutive starts.

As a result, Mercedes negotiated with Williams to secure the services of George Russell, who has been backed by the Silver Arrows throughout his career, for this 87-lap race around the 11-turn, 2.202-mile (3.544-kilometer) road course in Sakhir, Bahrain.

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This is a huge deal for the 22-year-old Briton, who is under contract with Williams through the 2021 season but has been and remains seen as the most likely replacement candidate for whichever one of the Mercedes pair, Hamilton or Valtteri Bottas, departs from the team first.

Russell enters this race weekend having just achieved a historic feat in qualifying. Through 36 career starts, he has yet to be outqualified by a teammate, by far an all-time record to open up a career. Only seven-time world champion Michael Schumacher and three-time champion Ayrton Senna have even gone more consecutive races at any point in their careers without losing a teammate qualifying battle.

But as big of a deal as this is for Russell to prove what he can do behind the wheel of a championship-winning W11 for the factory Mercedes team, this may be an even bigger deal for Bottas, his teammate for the weekend.

Since arriving at Mercedes ahead of the 2017 season, Bottas has won nine races while teammate Hamilton has won 42 races and four world championships.

Bottas’s lack of wins and championships has been largely chalked up to the fact that Hamilton is Hamilton, arguably the greatest driver the sport has ever seen.

He has been a more than capable number two driver behind the 35-year-old Briton and has played a key role in helping Mercedes win each of the four constructor championships they have won during his four seasons with the team.

His pace has also been better than his win total indicates. He has taken 15 poles as a Mercedes driver; Hamilton has taken 37 in the same span.

As a result, the 31-year-old Finn continues to sign one-year contracts with the team. He signed a fifth back in August to remain with the Brackley-based team through next year; even Hamilton doesn’t yet have a deal to return in 2021.

But if the 22-year-old Russell comes in and beats him handily in his first race with Mercedes, tough questions need to start being answered.

This is absolutely not to say that Russell isn’t talented. He has proven his caliber as a potential future world champion, and beating him is a challenge.

But on paper, based on every factor at play here, Bottas should win this battle, and if he doesn’t, that will mean more for his own career than it will for Russell’s.

Obviously the only way Russell is going to replace Hamilton in a full-time capacity is if Hamilton steps away from the sport. But he is seen as a future Mercedes driver regardless, and impressing the team by beating Bottas could speed up that process, possibly as early as 2022 when Bottas is currently out of a contract.

Toto Wolff has noted that this is not a straight-up shootout for a 2022 seat. But with all things considered, all that means it that this weekend alone isn’t going to cause the team to come out with a verdict by Monday.

It’s also not out of the question that by 2022, even if Hamilton does retire, Mercedes may end up looking elsewhere for a driver to pair with Russell.

I’ve said this before: let’s not forget that in terms of wins for Mercedes, Bottas is only tied for second place over the last five seasons, and he is tied with Nico Rosberg.

Rosberg also retired four years ago.

As awesome as it would be for George Russell’s career for him to go out there and win the Sakhir Grand Prix this weekend, especially after proving he is capable of doing so by topping the speed charts in the first two practice sessions, this is more of a career-defining moment for Valtteri Bottas than it is for anybody else.