NASCAR: Matt Kenseth and the power of expectations
By James Dunn
Now that the 2020 NASCAR season has come and gone, I have only one question to ask: what were our expectations for Matt Kenseth in his one-off return to the Cup Series?
In April, I wrote about how Matt Kenseth returning to the NASCAR Cup Series was a bad deal for both him and Chip Ganassi Racing. Since what I discussed was a mere prediction at the time, let’s take a look and see if any of that came to fruition.
"“I think it would be safe to say that you can consider the 2020 season a write-off for the #42 team, despite Kenseth’s playoff waiver.”"
Knowing what we know now, you can rate this quote as 100% true. Kenseth’s stats for 2020 were nothing short of abysmal: two top 10 finishes, a career-worst, an average finish of 21.4, also a career-worst, five DNFs and just 16 lead-lap finishes in 32 starts.
Oh, and his crew chief was fired halfway through the season.
Yikes.
Overall, 2020 was a write- off for the #42 team in more ways than one.
"“Why not go with Chastain? When he replaced Ryan Newman for three races, his results were not impressive: a 27th place finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, a 17th place finish at Auto Club Speedway, and a 23rd place finish at Phoenix Raceway. … not great, but serviceable. I think Ganassi missed a key opportunity to develop talent."
I do want to admit I was wrong with this one. Was Kenseth the only true option to replace Kyle Larson? Maybe. I now believe Ganassi didn’t have a choice and needed to reach into the basket of retirees and go fishing for one who could at least try to give him results. Not rushing Chastain was the right move.
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Now that I have my admissions out of the way, I have a question for you: what exactly were your expectations?
If you look at the comments on social media, fans were elated. They were celebrating Kenseth’s return like Ewoks defeating the Empire. But it almost felt like this celebration was because of the expectations many had for Kenseth. Maybe you expected him to win, or at least make the playoffs. I mean, Chip Ganassi Racing is not a terrible team by any measure.
So what happened? I think we forgot to scratch the surface and look at one major factor: the lack of practice.
Matt Kenseth hadn’t raced a stock car full-time in over two years. The cars are different than what he raced with Joe Gibbs Racing in 2017, and even with Roush Fenway Racing as a part-time driver in 2018.
It was also reported that Kenseth was running Larson’s setups because that’s what the team had ready, so it only made sense to keep it that way. No practice meant no time to make them better and fit Kenseth’s driving style; it was all just trial and error on race day.
Honestly, I think that was the reason why Chad Johnston was fired. Did he even make an effort on communicating with Kenseth on how the cars should be set up? Was there even a Zoom meeting?
Top 10 NASCAR drivers of all-time. dark. Next
In the end, I will never doubt Kenseth’s abilities. The 2003 champion sits in a 21st place tie on the all-time wins list, and I’ve always seen him as a bit of a sneaky figure. I don’t think we need to remember him for the 2020 season he had, but for the many other years in which he was a tour de force.