Formula 1: Mercedes squash driver lineup rumors

Valtteri Bottas and George Russell, Mercedes, Formula 1 (Photo by Giuseppe Cacace - Pool/Getty Images)
Valtteri Bottas and George Russell, Mercedes, Formula 1 (Photo by Giuseppe Cacace - Pool/Getty Images) /
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Following a dazzling performance in the Sakhir Grand Prix, speculation was fueled about George Russell replacing Valtteri Bottas at Mercedes as early as the 2021 Formula 1 season because of some social media bio changes. But Mercedes have dispelled rumours with a tongue-in-cheek bio change of their own.

Going into the Sakhir Grand Prix, George Russell was given a golden opportunity to lay a marker down as to why he should be considered for a drive in the best car in Formula 1, stepping in at Mercedes for Lewis Hamilton while he recovered from COVID-19.

A mountain of pressure and expectation was on Russell’s shoulders going into the event, but the 22-year-old displayed maturity beyond his years in an unfamiliar car.

He jumped teammate Valtteri Bottas at the start and led most of the race, before a botched double-stack pitstop by the team and a late tire puncture cost him the race “twice“, according to Russell himself.

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He eventually fought his way to ninth place and his first career points in Formula 1. Bottas said afterwards his performance risked making him look like “a fool” after he was unable to keep pace with Russell and limped home in eighth.

Given such contrasting performances, despite the result itself suggesting otherwise, the rumor mill has been in overdrive ever since, with fans questioning whether Russell should replace Bottas as early as next year. Before delving into the rumors, here’s what we know.

Bottas is under contract at Mercedes until the end of 2021. Russell is under contract at Williams until the end of 2021. There is a seat currently open at Mercedes, with Hamilton yet to reach a deal beyond his current contract, which expires at the end of this season. The equation sounds fairly straightforward, right? If only things were that simple…

Hamilton is a seven-time world champion. For Mercedes not to be able to agree terms with him would be a travesty not just for the team, but the sport as well, unless Red Bull come knocking, as they are one of the three remaining teams to have a spare seat for next year. The other one is AlphaTauri, but with all due respect, that can be ruled out.

It would seem to be a matter of thrashing out personal terms between Hamilton and Mercedes going forward, as they’re keen to stay on with each other. But suggestions have been made that Russell’s strong performance could have an impact on Hamilton too, with Sky Sports F1 commentator Martin Brundle saying that Russell has “capped” Hamilton’s value.

While Bottas is under contract for another season, Russell is a product of the Mercedes junior driver program, and Mercedes would undoubtedly be keen to show off how successful that path can be for young drivers, especially when Red Bull, their current closest competitor in the sport, place such focus on developing their own.

So with Hamilton’s stature, if anybody is to be replaced at Mercedes next year, it would likely to be Bottas. But that brings with it a range of its own problems for the team. They’d surely have to pay Bottas out of his contract, and Williams for their contract with Russell, even though he’s a Mercedes driver.

While Mercedes may not be too fussed about short-changing Williams, that then leaves a gap for the team which have given an opportunity to Mercedes’ academy product. Russell is very well thought of at Williams, with the team saying they “missed” his input in the Sakhir Grand Prix.

It’s what’s been said in the aftermath of that race that has set the rumor mill into overdrive. It seems as all the key players have had their say.

On Monday, Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff set tongues wagging as he said pairing Hamilton up with Russell could make for a “wild ride” in the future. But he did say he did not see it as a “realistic situation at that moment in time” and that Bottas and Hamilton are the team’s drivers, adding that Russell is signed with Williams.

But the headline suggests that Mercedes are thinking very seriously about Russell’s future involvement with the team, especially after Wolff said it could happen.

And that’s exactly what Russell wanted to use his opportunity at the Sakhir Grand Prix to do. After the race, Russell said to Sky Sports F1 that he wanted to give Mercedes food for thought over their driver selection going forward. And on Tuesday, he elaborated, saying he wanted to give Wolff a headache “not just for 2022, maybe sooner“.

Fighting talk from the young driver.

But since then, Mercedes have dealt a potential double blow to Russell’s hopes of being in the Mercedes garage next year.

On Wednesday, Wolff said the team “can’t be carried away” with how well Russell drove in the Sakhir Grand Prix, and he claimed that “Lewis is still the benchmark”. So that confirms Mercedes are still very keen to sign Hamilton, closing off one seat for 2021 for Russell.

The rumor mill sparked back up again when it was found Russell and Bottas both changed their bios on Instagram. Russell removed a mention of Williams, and Bottas removed a mention of Mercedes.

But after fans started speculating that a change in the driver lineup could be in the pipeline because of those changes, Mercedes changed their own bio to read “It’s just an Instagram bio. Don’t overthink it”, complete with a winking face emoji with a tongue sticking out.

Rumors squashed. For now…

Mercedes will surely want to focus on tying down Hamilton to a new deal before assessing the options as to who will partner him. Russell won’t get another chance in the Mercedes at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix with Hamilton set to return.

With the team having been so keen to get Hamilton back in the car for an event that has no importance for them nor Hamilton in either championship and with Bottas under contract beyond this year, which would likely to cost an arm and a leg to get him out of, it’s looking likely that the same driver pairing will continue through 2021.

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But for the new era of Formula 1 starting in 2022? Now that’s an entirely different prospect…