NASCAR Cup Series: 5 drivers who will regress in 2021

Drivers who will regress in 2021 – Denny Hamlin

A marvelous 2020 season ended in ultimate disappointment for Denny Hamlin, but the season still stands as one of his best campaigns throughout his 15-year NASCAR Cup Series career.

Hamlin put up seven wins and an astonishing 18 top five finishes. His average finish was a career-best 9.3, and he led over 1,000 laps for the first time since 2012. Even if the driver of the #11 Toyota is able to reach the Championship 4 again, putting up similar win, top five and laps led totals will be a tall task.

Back in 2010, Hamlin took second place in the championship standings, winning eight races along the way. The following season was mediocre for his standards, as 2011 saw him fall to ninth in the standings and notch just one win.

But in 2019 and 2020, Hamlin had no issue putting together back-to-back elite seasons, with both ending in fourth place finishes in the standings. If Hamlin wants to claim his first Cup Series title, he will have to have similar success this season.

While saying Hamlin is “due for a down year” is a bit superstitious and unconvincing, it is likely that regression to the mean proves true in 2021. Putting up a third consecutive year of six or more wins and a Championship 4 appearance is nearly unheard of in today’s Cup Series.

Moreover, the ascension of Chase Elliott to stardom and possible rebounds by Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota teammates Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. could leave Hamlin with more competition this season than just Kevin Harvick.