Formula 1: Is Lewis Hamilton capable of winning close?

If the 2021 Formula 1 world championship comes down to the wire, is the usually dominant Lewis Hamilton capable of closing it out?

Throughout the entire offseason leading up to the 2021 Formula 1 season, all we heard about was the potential for an epic battle between Mercedes and Red Bull, namely Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen, to win the world championship.

Mercedes entered the season as the seven-time reigning world champions, while Hamilton, a seven-time world champion himself, entered the season having won the last four titles and six of the last seven.

But due to a variety of reasons, Red Bull were believed to have closed the gap, and some even pegged them as the favorites to win their first championship since they won four in a row with Sebastian Vettel from 2010 to 2013.

If the first two races showed us anything, it is that the battle between Hamilton and Verstappen should be just as advertised.

Red Bull and Verstappen had the pace to beat in the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix at Bahrain International Circuit, but it was Mercedes and Hamilton who won on a great strategy and impressive execution down the stretch.

Hamilton took the pole position for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari (Imola), but again, Red Bull and Verstappen had the pace to beat, and this time, they capitalized.

After two rounds on the record-breaking 23-race calendar, which both saw each driver record one win and one runner-up finish, the difference between the two drivers atop the standings is just one point, with Hamilton holding a 44 to 43 point lead.

Mercedes are obviously still playing catch-up, so the fact that Hamilton has actually managed to stay ahead of Verstappen when the latter has clearly been the quicker driver shows that Red Bull aren’t going to run away with it.

More from Formula One

• Formula 1: Top Red Bull threat identified for 2024
• Formula 1: Why the Max Verstappen retirement obsession?
• Formula 1: Williams ‘mistake’ hints Logan Sargeant’s future
• Formula 1 awaiting key confirmation for 2024 season
• Formula 1: The ‘championship’ Max Verstappen only leads by 3 points

But the fact that it is as close as it is now shows that even if Mercedes make some key improvements, they probably aren’t going to be running away with anything either.

So that raises the question: is Hamilton capable of winning a close world championship?

He has won the last four world titles comfortably, with multiple races to spare in each. He secured the 2017, 2018 and 2019 titles in the antepenultimate (third to last) race of the season, and he secured the 2020 title in the preantepenultimate (fourth to last) race of the season.

He also won the 2014 and 2015 world titles to kick off the V6 turbo hybrid era which he and his team have dominated.

The 2014 championship battle came down to the season finale, but Hamilton still had a sizable lead that would have technically been a lot bigger had double points not been on offer for the final race of the year. He had won 10 races by that point while teammate and championship rival Nico Rosberg had won five.

In 2015, he clinched the title in the preantepenultimate race of the season.

Since the V6 turbo hybrid era began, Hamilton has won more races than everybody else in every season. Mercedes have won 103 of the 140 races that have been contested, and Hamilton has won 74 of those events.

The only truly close championship of this era took place in 2016, when the title was decided in the season finale by just five points, and Hamilton lost. Despite winning one more race than Rosberg, with the difference being his win in the season finale (10 to 9), Rosberg prevailed.

Hamilton also lost a close battle in his rookie year with McLaren in 2007 by just one point to Kimi Raikkonen. Of course, Hamilton’s 2008 world championship with McLaren was won in close fashion, but in addition to the fact that that was 13 years ago now, that also didn’t come down to a straight-up fight with Felipe Massa; it came down to him passing a slower Timo Glock for fifth place after Massa had already won and thought he had won the title.

Hamilton was in the fight until the end in 2010 also, ultimately finishing in fourth place among four drivers who finished within 16 points at the top of the standings.

So throughout his career, in battles that have come down to the wire, he hasn’t always been on the winning end when facing equally talented drivers in equally fast equipment.

Will that change if the 2021 battle plays out like many feel it is going to?

There is reason for optimism for Hamilton as well as Verstappen. First of all, Hamilton is far more experienced now than he was even five years ago. He hasn’t lost a world championship since he was a three-time world champion, and he is now a seven-time world champion, something that only Michael Schumacher can also say.

Verstappen simply doesn’t have that experience that Hamilton can fall back on.

And one level up from experience is skill level. Let’s not pretend that Verstappen isn’t performing at the highest level of his career as well; that’s the only reason he is in this discussion and able to compete with the seven-time world champion.

But right now, Hamilton is also performing at the highest level of his career. If his win in Bahrain after fending off a clearly quicker Verstappen wasn’t proof of that, his comeback drive in Imola certainly should have been.

Of course, a mistake led to that comeback drive. He even admitted that impatience played a key role in the accident. But the fact that he finished in second place — with the bonus point for recording the fastest lap — after going a lap off the lead lap, even if aided by a red flag, just goes to show that you are literally going to have to knock him out if you want to keep him down.

Verstappen had been good at doing that. In the first eight wins of his career from 2016 to 2019, he won races in which Hamilton struggled mightily for one reason or another.

More often than not, Verstappen did have the fastest car; it wasn’t as if he was only winning because Hamilton was making mistakes, save for his first win in 2016.

Many times, Hamilton simply seemed lost when he wasn’t the man to beat, and he committed several uncharacteristic, unforced errors along the way.

Take a look at Hamilton’s results in Verstappen’s first eight wins.

1. 2016 Spanish Grand Prix – RETIRED (21st)
2. 2017 Malaysian Grand Prix – 2nd
3. 2017 Mexican Grand Prix – 9th
4. 2018 Austrian Grand Prix – RETIRED (16th)
5. 2018 Mexican Grand Prix – 4th
6. 2019 Austrian Grand Prix – 5th
7. 2019 German Grand Prix – 9th
8. 2019 Brazilian Grand Prix – 7th

That’s good for an average finish of 9.13, including retirements, and 6.00, excluding retirements, with just one podium finish.

But ever since last year, Hamilton seems to have found his footing when Verstappen’s Red Bull has found the front.

He has taken it in stride when Verstappen has been better, and he has simply made the most of it on every occasion, much like we saw in Imola, a race that very easily could have seen Verstappen open up a lead of around 16 points in the driver standings, given Hamilton’s error.

In each race Verstappen has won since last year, Hamilton has finished on the podium. He finished in second place in the 2020 70th Anniversary Grand Prix at Silverstone Circuit, third in the 2020 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina Circuit amid his recovery from COVID-19, and obviously second in the most recent race at Imola despite crashing.

That is quite a step up from his other performances in races won by Verstappen, to say the least; I don’t know if a 2017-2019 version of Hamilton would have finished the Imola race in second place, or even in the top five.

So while Hamilton’s history hasn’t necessarily favored him in close battles or when Verstappen has found success, he seems to be performing well at the right time — ironically, in a close battle with Verstappen while Verstappen is finding tons of success.

Will he be able to maintain that through the full 23-race season?

Will Verstappen be able to maintain his form throughout the 23-race season against arguably the greatest driver ever?

With all these factors in play, there’s no way to truly declare that one has an advantage over the other, and that’s exactly what fans asked for entering the season.

The third of 23 races on the 2021 Formula 1 schedule is scheduled to take place on Sunday, May 2 at Algarve International Circuit (Portimao). This race, the Portuguese Grand Prix, is set to be broadcast live on ESPN beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET. Hamilton won this race last year, but Red Bull’s 2021 package could give them the upper hand.