Formula 1: Is Mercedes’ hand practically forced?

For more than one reason, Mercedes’ hand appears to be practically forced regarding their biggest decision for the 2022 Formula 1 season.

Driver lineup speculation regarding the 2022 Formula 1 season has already begun to heat up, even with only six of the 23 races on the 2021 schedule in the books.

Mercedes have been at the forefront of some of those rumors with both Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas not having deals to compete beyond the end of 2021.

After a tumultuous offseason that did not see Hamilton re-sign with Mercedes until the month before the season began and only saw him sign a one-year deal, there have been multiple reports that he and the team want to get a deal done for 2022 at some point this summer.

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While this could ultimately lead to more drama if a deal isn’t confirmed when expected, it does look as though that historically successful partnership is slated to continue for a 10th season next year.

However, Bottas, despite signing a new deal six months before Hamilton did last year, appears to have a far less certain future at the Brackley-based team. But has Mercedes’ hand already been forced?

Many believe that Bottas has already been informed that he won’t be back with the Silver Arrows in 2022. He has denied those rumors, but there are still several signs that point to him not returning next year.

Bottas has never been as good as Hamilton since joining him at Mercedes in 2017, but he has always been a solid team player who has been able to deliver solid results for the team to help them secure their constructor championships while Hamilton has gone four for four winning driver championships.

Only once in four years has Bottas finished outside of the top three in the driver standings, twice finishing runner-up.

But this year, Bottas sits in sixth place in the driver standings behind drivers from three rival teams, and in two of the six races that have been contested, he has struggled to run higher than the ninth or 10th place range. He has scored points just three times.

Additionally, despite the fact that Hamilton only trails Red Bull’s Max Verstappen by four points in the driver standings, Mercedes now trail Red Bull by 26 points in the constructor standings.

Red Bull’s other driver, Sergio Perez, is coming into his own at his new team, and he has proven thus far to be man they need in their second car to take the fight to Mercedes.

The Milton Keynes-based team hadn’t had a driver other than Verstappen win a race in more than three years, and Perez sits in third place in the driver standings with a victory in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix already. He has played a key role in taking Red Bull to the top of the standings for the first time since 2013, primarily by outperforming Bottas.

And let’s also not forget that the 2022 season marks a beginning of a new era in Formula 1 with the new rules and regulations, which were initially slated to take effect in 2021 before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, set to go into effect.

Mercedes rivals Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren have all committed to a young star for the foreseeable future. Red Bull have 23-year-old Max Verstappen under contract through 2023, Ferrari have 23-year-old Charles Leclerc under contract through 2024, and McLaren recently signed 21-year-old Lando Norris to a multi-year extension.

Additionally, even Alpine just signed 24-year-old Esteban Ocon to a massive extension that runs through the 2024 season, something that not many expected to happen this soon.

Mercedes, on the other hand? They are trailing in that department. Hamilton at 36 years old isn’t going to be driving forever, and Bottas himself is 31.

With Mercedes junior driver George Russell in the third and final year of his contract with Williams, now would be the perfect time for the team to turn toward the future by signing the 23-year-old Briton.

Russell, who is now 43-0 in Williams qualifying battles, stepped in for Hamilton in last year’s Sakhir Grand Prix at Bahrain International Circuit after Hamilton tested positive for COVID-19, and despite the fact that he barely fit inside the car and was left with bloody knuckles and banged-up knees, he handily outperformed Bottas in his Mercedes debut, only to be sabotaged late by two issues out of his control.

Considering Bottas’s performance, Mercedes’ battle with Red Bull, Russell’s performance and the commitment of Mercedes’ rivals to young drivers for the foreseeable future, it seems as though their hand is practically forced.