NASCAR: Will history repeat itself with Kevin Harvick’s drought?

Kevin Harvick is winless through 17 races in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, but there is reason to believe he can snap this drought like he did in 2019.

Kevin Harvick was nearly unbeatable during much of the 2020 season, leading the NASCAR Cup Series with nine victories, including five in a span of nine races. But the driver of the #4 Ford for Stewart-Haas Racing hasn’t won a race since last September when he won at Bristol Motor Speedway. His win drought is up to 24 races.

This isn’t the first time that Harvick has gone cold after scoring a bunch of wins the previous year, and he was able to bounce back when it happened before. Plus, the upcoming schedule features a few tracks where he has done well in recent seasons. So could this be a sign of déjà vu for the veteran driver?

Harvick tied Kyle Busch for the most wins in 2018 with eight victories. He finished in third place in the championship standings but started the following year with a long win drought.

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His first win of the 2019 season came in race number 20 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, breaking a 21-race win drought that began after he won at Texas Motor Speedway in November 2018.

Snapping that drought gave him momentum, as he won three more races and advanced to the Championship 4 for the fifth time in six years en route to another third place finish in the championship standings.

So just like from 2018 to 2019, he led the series in wins 2020 but hasn’t visited victory lane yet in 2021. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is also located at a similar spot on the schedule, race number 22.

Harvick is not the only driver in the past decade to snap a long win drought after winning the most races or tying for the series-high the previous season. Joey Logano won six races in the 2015 season and didn’t score his first victory of the 2016 season until race number 15 at Michigan International Speedway. He went on to finish in second place in the championship standings.

Martin Truex Jr. won seven races in the 2019 season and then scored his first and only win of the 2020 season in race number 11 at Martinsville Speedway.

Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski both went on long win droughts after winning five races in the 2012 season, with Keselowski’s first victory of the 2013 season coming in race number 31 at Charlotte Motor Speedway and Hamlin’s coming in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Hamlin did miss four races due to injury. Both drivers failed to qualify for what was then a 12-driver playoff, although the 2013 season saw a 13th driver added.

Logano and Truex both ended their droughts earlier in the season than Harvick can now, but getting at least one victory has been a constant in the past decade, with the only exception being Matt Kenseth in the 2014 season after he won seven races in the 2013 season.

If Harvick snaps his win drought near race number 20 again, there is a good chance that it will happen at a track where he has recent success.

The next stop on the Cup Series schedule is Pocono Raceway for a doubleheader this Saturday and Sunday. Harvick finished in first and second place at the track last year. He has one win, three runner-up finishes and seven top four finishes in his most recent nine Pocono starts.

The Cup Series is then set to head to Road America for the inaugural Cup Series race at the Wisconsin road course next Sunday. The track has been a fixture on the Xfinity Series calendar for the past decade, but Harvick hasn’t competed in any of those races. In his last eight road course starts dating back to 2019, he has one top five finish and four top seven finishes with one DNF.

While Road America could be a weak spot for Harvick, he does have better tracks that follow, with Atlanta Motor Speedway coming up the following Sunday and New Hampshire Motor Speedway coming up the Sunday after that, leading into two consecutive off weekends.

Harvick finished in 10th place at Atlanta Motor Speedway back in March, following a win in the lone race there last year. He has two wins, four top four finishes and seven top 10 finishes in the last seven races at the track.

After snapping his win drought at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in 2019, he finished in fifth place in last year’s race at the track. He has three wins and eight top five finishes in the last 10 races there with one DNF.

Harvick earned his nickname “The Closer” because of his ability to come back late in a race, but he has also shown the ability to come back late in a season. With four of the next five races scheduled to take place at tracks where he has had recent success, now could be the time for him to snap his win drought and put himself in a better position entering the playoffs.