NASCAR: Kyle Larson may have lost more than a win streak

Kyle Larson’s heartbreak at Pocono Raceway cost him not only the win but the lead in the regular season point standings, which could make a huge difference when the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs roll around.

A three-race NASCAR Cup Series winning streak that was just one turn from becoming the ninth ever four-race winning streak was snapped when Kyle Larson’s #5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet had a left front tire go down on the final lap of Saturday afternoon’s Pocono Organics CBD 325 at Pocono Raceway, sending him into the turn three wall.

It was Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman who capitalized and secured his third win of the year ahead of Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch in second place.

Larson had to settle for ninth place in this 130-lap race around the three-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) triangle in Long Pond, Pennsylvania.

Losing what was just seconds away from becoming a historic winning streak is, of course, quite devastating in itself.

But big picture, Larson may have lost a lot more than a win and his streak.

Had Larson won this race, he would have ended Denny Hamlin’s 16-race streak atop the regular season point standings.

Hamlin’s lead was as big as 101 points after the season’s 13th race at Dover International Speedway, but Larson has been able to reel him in over the last several weeks, in large part thanks to his three-race winning streak — and his six-race streak of top two finishes.

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Entering Saturday afternoon’s race, Hamlin sat 10 points ahead of Larson in the standings (686-676). Larson scored eight points by finishing the first stage in third place and nine points by finishing the second stage in second. With his ninth place finish in the race, he scored 28 more points, giving him 45 throughout the entire race.

As for Hamlin, he scored five points by finishing the first stage in sixth place and five points by finishing the second stage in sixth as well. With his fourth place finish in the race, he scored 33 more points, giving him 43 throughout the entire race.

Had Larson hung on to win, he would have scored 40 points as opposed to 28 and therefore finished with 57 as opposed to 45. Hamlin would have scored 32 as opposed to 33 with a fifth place finish and therefore finished with 42 as opposed to 43.

So had Larson’s tire not gone down, he would have 733 points, five points more than Hamlin with 728. Instead, Larson trails Hamlin by eight (729-721).

And this could be a lot bigger than simply losing the lead in the standings after a random regular season race.

With eight races remaining in the 26-race regular season, it is far too early to determine whether or not this will end up being significant, but if this 13-point swing does prove to be the difference between Larson and Hamlin finishing the regular season on top of the point standings, it could have massive implications.

Larson lost the five playoff points, points drivers carry with them through each round of the playoffs prior to the Championship 4, he would have earned by winning the race.

Additionally, winning the regular season championship is worth 15 playoff points. Finishing in second in the standings is worth 10.

Larson currently has 32 playoff points, thanks to his four wins (20) and 12 stage wins (12) so far this season. Sitting in second place in the point standings, he would enter the playoffs with 42 (32+10).

Hamlin currently has five playoff points thanks to his five stage wins (5). As the points leader, he would enter the playoffs with 20 (5+15).

Had Larson won, he would have 37 playoff points and be leading the standings, which would put him on course to have 52 entering the playoffs. Hamlin would be sitting in second and be slated to enter the playoffs with 15.

So as of now, this flat tire would effectively cost Larson not just five but 10 playoff points — and 15 relative to Hamlin and Bowman.

Of course, it’s not over yet. This could prove to be trivial in the long run, depending on the points gaps at the end of the regular season and after each round of the playoffs. But it’s certainly worth watching. With the modern-day playoff format, a win is never truly just a win, and a missed opportunity is never truly just a missed opportunity.

The second race of the weekend doubleheader at Pocono Raceway, the Explore the Pocono Mountains 350, is set to be broadcast live on NBC Sports Network beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET this afternoon. Will Larson bounce back?