NASCAR: How to read and understand betting odds

Sports betting is taking off in terms of popularity in states where it’s legal, and NASCAR is no exception. Here’s how to understand NASCAR betting odds.

One of the fastest growing aspects of the world of sports in this day and age is sports betting, and NASCAR has witnessed that growth firsthand as of late. Cars and horses are two things that bettors can’t resist, and NASCAR certainly fits the bill for the former.

But this is still a relatively new industry as it becomes legal in more and more states across the U.S., and there are a few things to know before throwing your money around carelessly just to fit in with the new trend.

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First of all, you have to know how to read odds. Let’s use this Sunday’s race, ironically named the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301, at New Hampshire Motor Speedway as an example.

The favorite is Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson, who is listed at +425 odds. This means that a successful $100 bet on Larson pays out $525, so winnings of $425.

The second favorite is Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch, who is listed at +500 odds. Likewise, this means that a successful $100 bet on Busch pays out $600, so winnings of $500. Another way of writing these odds is 5:1.

While it’s rare in NASCAR for a driver not to have odds as good as something like -150, it’s worth discussing what the minus sign means as well. Another way of writing these odds is 2:3.

This means that a $150 bet pays out $250, so winnings of $100. Likewise, odds of -300 mean that a $300 bet pays $400, so winnings of $100. Another way of writing these odds is 1:3.

All sounds good, right? Sure, when you win.

It is important to note that when it comes to the implied chances of winning, those chances will always, always, always add up to more than 100% (when there is one winner).

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Likewise, if we’re talking about chances of finishing on the podium, those chances will always add up to more than 300%, since there are three podium spots. If we’re talking about a top five finish, those chances will always add up to more than 500%, etc.

Why? Because the payout is based on the implied chances of winning, and if they were exactly 100%, the bookmakers would never make any money over time; their losses would cancel out their gains.

For example, the implied chance of a driver with +200 odds winning is 33.33% [100/(100+200)]. On the flip side, the implied chance of a driver with -250 odds winning is 71.42% [250/(250+100)]. So in a two-man race, these could be the odds, since the implied chances total more than 100%.

With +200 odds implying that a driver has a 33.33% chance to win, his real chance to win may really only be around 25%, depending on what everybody else’s odds are listed as. But your payout would be based on a 33.33% chance (x3), not a 25% chance (x4). You would be tripling your money, not quadrupling it.

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So while it’s entirely possible to win a ton of money betting on races, keep in mind that in the long run, it’s designed to ensure that the bookmakers end up well ahead of where they started. Remember, they’re the ones operating their businesses.

When it comes to betting, just remember this: there’s a reason that casinos look like palaces, and it’s not because bettors are donating their winnings.

But on the right day, there are certainly still plenty of winnings to be had!

The Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 is set to be broadcast live on NBC Sports Network beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 18.