Formula 1: Low-risk betting odds for British Grand Prix?

By Asher Fair | Jul 15, 2021

Max Verstappen, Red Bull, Formula 1 (Photo by CHRISTOPHE SIMON/AFP via Getty Images) /

Formula 1 betting odds show Max Verstappen as the favorite for the British Grand Prix, but would it be wise to bet on both him and Lewis Hamilton?

Red Bull are riding a five-race winning streak and Max Verstappen has won four of those five races, including the last three, heading into the 2021 Formula 1 season’s 10th race, the British Grand Prix at Silverstone Circuit. ESPN is set to broadcast this race live beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET on Sunday, July 18.

Verstappen is listed as the favorite to win this 52-lap race around the 18-turn, 3.661-mile (5.892-kilometer) road course in Silverstone in part Northamptonshire and part Buckinghamshire in England, United Kingdom.

WynnBET lists the 23-year-old Dutchman’s odds as -125 for this race. This implies that he has a 55.56% chance to win [125/(125+100)], and it means that a $125 bet on Verstappen would pay $100 if he were to take the checkered flag ($225 total).

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Verstappen and championship rival Lewis Hamilton have won eight of the nine races that have been contested so far this season, and they each won one race at Silverstone Circuit last year. Both finished in second place in the race they didn’t win.

So would it be smart to put money on both Verstappen and Hamilton for this year’s British Grand Prix?

Hamilton is listed as the second favorite for this race at +200. This implies that he has a 33.33% chance to win [100/(100+200)], and it means that a $100 bet on him would pay $200 if he were to take the checkered flag ($300 total).

Why would you bet on both?

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Barring a catastrophe, this is the safe strategy because of the fact that their implied chances to win don’t add up to 100%, yet it is almost a foregone conclusion that one of the two will be standing atop the podium.

Take a look at an example.

Let’s say you put $12.50 on Verstappen. If Verstappen wins, you walk away $10 ahead with $22.50. If Verstappen loses, you lose $12.50. But you can make that back by betting on Hamilton. By betting $7.50 on Hamilton, you win $15.00 if he wins.

So you walk away with $22.50 after betting only a total of $20.00 ($2.50 ahead).

Meanwhile, if Verstappen wins, you still walk away with $22.50. Even if you’ve also bet on Hamilton, you’ve only bet $20.00, and you still end up $2.50 ahead.

Again, this is possible because their implied chances to win don’t add up to 100%, which is rare in a situation where there are just two primary contenders. There are other dollar amounts that you can plug in and make this work too; this is just one example.

But of course, this “safe” strategy could backfire as well; just look at what happened in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix at Baku City Circuit, the only race so far this season that was won by a driver other than Verstappen or Hamilton.

Verstappen crashed from the lead with five laps remaining due to a tire failure, and Hamilton went off course with the lead with two laps remaining with a braking issue.

Red Bull’s Sergio Perez capitalized and secured the win.

So if you want to be extra conservative, you can also put money on Perez or Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas at +1100 (8.33% implied chance to win).

The implied chance of one of these two drivers plus Verstappen and Hamilton still doesn’t add up to 100%, so you can ensure that you won’t lose money as long as one of the three wins (and as long as you bet appropriate dollar amounts on each driver based on their respective odds).

Take a look at an example.

Bet $12.50 on Verstappen to win $10.00 ($22.50 total)
Bet $7.50 on Hamilton to win $15.00 ($22.50 total)
Bet $1.87 on Perez OR Bottas (pick one of the two) to win $20.63 ($22.50 total)

You’ve now bet $21.87, and the lowest amount you’ll win, as long as one of these three drivers wins, is $22.50 ($0.63 ahead).

NOTE: Just don’t bet on all four, because then the implied chance goes over 100%, and this strategy of adjusting your dollar amounts ends up guaranteeing that you won’t end up ahead!

No, it’s not a huge gain, but you can scale it as high or low as you want to.

And in a world where the house always wins, it’s a much safer bet than throwing all of your money away on a loser, especially since there are so few contenders to win Formula 1 races in this day and age.

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