NASCAR: How the points leader could drop out of the playoffs

Denny Hamlin has led the point standings after all but one race so far in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, but he is not safe as far as the playoffs are concerned.

The first 14 races of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season saw 11 different winners, and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin was not among those 11 drivers, despite the fact that he had led the point standings after every race except for the season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway.

Hamlin led the standings by more than 100 points at one point, putting him in a great position to advance to the four-round, 10-race playoffs even without a win.

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No matter how many winners there end up being, one of the 16 playoff spots is guaranteed to go to the regular season champion, whether he has won a race or not.

While Hamlin’s points lead shrunk over the next few races, the Cup Series did not see any new winners over the next six events.

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Those same 11 winners who had won at least one of the season’s first 14 races were the only 11 drivers who had been victorious at any point through the season’s first 20 events.

But the most recent two races have produced two more new winners, including one that had ranked 27th in the point standings before his win. Meanwhile, Hamlin is still winless. Fortunately for the driver of the #11 Toyota, he still leads Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson by 13 points in the regular season point standings.

However, that distance is effectively the distance between Hamlin being locked into the playoffs and being in a very vulnerable 14th place in the playoff picture with four races remaining in the regular season.

The guarantee that the regular season points champion makes the playoffs is just that: a guarantee that the regular season points champion makes the playoffs.

With a second place finish in the regular season point standings, there is no guarantee. There’s no doubt that, if he remains winless, Hamlin is going to be the top winless driver in the points. As we speak, he sits 283 points above the playoff cut line and 201 points above the next winless driver,

But the guarantee is not necessarily for the highest winless driver; it’s for the regular season champion, period.

Beyond the regular season champion, whether he has zero wins or 10, the rest of the playoff spots are given to the race winners. In a case where there are more than 16 race winners, the tiebreaker among single-race winners is points.

We could very well be in a position where we see 16 different winners before the 26-race regular season ends, and it’s not like we would need a ton of upsets.

Two of the regular season’s four remaining races are road course races, one at Watkins Glen International and one at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, the inaugural Cup Series race at the track.

While it will be tough to beat Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott in these events given how dominant he has been on road courses in recent years, we saw at the Daytona International Speedway road course what one ill-timed caution flag can do to the field.

There have been a number of winless drivers who have consistently run well on road courses as of late, including Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick, Chip Ganassi Racing’s Ross Chastain, and Stewart-Haas Racing rookie Chase Briscoe, who actually won the inaugural Xfinity Series race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course last year.

Any one of those drivers winning one of these races would put Hamlin in an even more uncomfortable position.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick has won four of the last five races at Michigan International Speedway, and he hasn’t gone a season without winning at the track since 2017. While he and Stewart-Haas Racing haven’t shown much speed this season, they are riding some momentum after Aric Almirola scored his upset win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Harvick winning at Michigan International Speedway would further put Hamlin into an uncomfortable spot.

And then there is the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway. Superspeedway races tend to produce surprise winners, and the winner of this race hasn’t won a non-superspeedway race in the same season since 2016, which is a recipe for producing yet another.

So if you’re in a position where you think you can get into the playoffs on points, you almost have to not think that way and assume that one of the spots you’re going for is going to end up being taken by the time this race concludes.

Hamlin very well could be in that position heading into this race, depending on what his points lead looks like — or if it still exists at that point — and if another upset winner emerges in it, he could be in trouble.

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NASCAR is nearing the end of a three-week hiatus from racing as a result of the Summer Olympics in Tokyo, Japan. Cup Series action is scheduled to resume this Sunday, August 8 with the Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International. This race is set to be broadcast live on NBC Sports Network beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET.

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