NASCAR: Could Denny Hamlin actually miss the playoffs?

Without a win, Denny Hamlin may have to rely on his point total to get into the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Will that be enough?

Three races remaining in the 26-race 2021 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, and the driver who has led or at least had a share of the lead of the point standings after the last 22 races is still not locked into the playoffs.

While the 2021 season has produced 13 different winners through 23 races, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin is not among that group, yet he is the driver who hasn’t been lower than a first place tie in the point standings since Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon held the lead after the season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway back in February.

At one point, Hamlin’s lead in the point standings hit triple digits. With the regular season champion guaranteed a playoff berth, regardless of how many wins he does (or doesn’t) have, Hamlin looked like a postseason lock.

But now things have changed.

It’s not a likely scenario, but there is still a small chance that Hamlin won’t end up among this year’s 16-driver playoff field.

Following this past Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen International, Hamlin is now tied for the lead of the point standings with Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson. Larson has won five races so far this season compared to Hamlin’s none, so he gets the tiebreaker and is considered the official points leader.

As a result, the guaranteed regular season champion playoff berth would go to Larson, who is already in anyway thanks to his five wins. While Hamlin will, at worst, finish the regular season as the highest winless driver, that guarantee does not necessarily extend to the highest winless driver; it is for the regular season champion only.

So by losing sole possession of the points lead, Hamlin is effectively now in 14th place in the playoff picture behind the 13 race winners.

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And with three races remaining in the regular season, that 14th would become a 17th — outside of the 16 playoff spots — with three new winners, provided Hamlin isn’t able to get back ahead of Larson in points.

Three new winners at this point in the season is highly unlikely. We’ve seen just two new winners in the last nine races. However, given what tracks remain on the schedule, it is far from being out of the question.

Next up on the schedule is the inaugural race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course on Sunday, August 15. It is going to be tough to beat Larson and teammate Chase Elliott, who have combined to win the last four road course races (with Elliott winning both first-time road course races of the year so far and three in a row going back to last year), but there have been plenty of non-winners who have run well in the road course races in 2021.

Among those drivers are Stewart-Haas Racing rookie Chase Briscoe, Richard Childress Racing’s Tyler Reddick and Chip Ganassi Racing’s Ross Chastain. In fact, Briscoe won the inaugural Xfinity Series race at this track last year.

After this race is the race at Michigan International Speedway on Sunday, August 22. The only remaining non-“wild card” race on the regular season schedule still has a chance to shake up the playoff picture based on the fact that Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick has not yet won this year.

Harvick has won four of the last five races at the track, including both last year, and he hasn’t gone winless there in a season since 2017.

Finally, we have Daytona International Speedway on Saturday, August 28. If you’re trying to get into the playoffs on points, you almost have to assume that you’re trying to get into a 15-driver playoff as opposed to a 16-driver playoff, considering just how many non-winners tend to contend at superspeedway races — and steal playoff bids.

Not since the 2016 season has the winner of this particular race also won a non-superspeedway race in the same season. If that trend continues in 2021 after two new winners in the next two races, Hamlin could be in trouble.

Only this unlikely scenario can result in Hamlin missing the 2021 playoffs, but it’s a scenario that could very well play out. Harvick is the three-time reigning winner at Michigan International Speedway, Briscoe is the only ever NASCAR winner at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, and the last two winners at Daytona International Speedway became first-time Cup Series winners with their victories. Will Hamlin get in?